Chronic effects of temperature on mortality in the Southeastern USA using satellite-based exposure metrics

Abstract

Climate change may affect human health, particularly for elderly individuals who are vulnerable to temperature changes. While many studies have investigated the acute effects of heat, only a few have dealt with the chronic ones. We have examined the effects of seasonal temperatures on survival of the elderly in the Southeastern USA, where a large fraction of subpopulation resides. We found that both seasonal mean temperature and its standard deviation (SD) affected long-term survival among the 13 million Medicare beneficiaries (aged 65+) in this region during 2000–2013. A 1 °C increase in summer mean temperature corresponded to an increase of 2.5% in death rate. Whereas, 1 °C increase in winter mean temperature was associated with a decrease of 1.5%. Increases in seasonal temperature SD also influence mortality. We decomposed seasonal mean temperature and its temperature SD into long-term geographic contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies within ZIP code. Effect modifications by different subgroups were also examined to find out whether certain individuals are more vulnerable. Our findings will be critical to future efforts assessing health risks related to the future climate change.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study

“…This is consistent with previous studies using mortality as the health outcome. For example, Shi et al 32 reported that for each 1°C increase in SD of winter temperature associated with 4.1% (95% CI 3.0% to 5.2%) increases in annual deaths using Medicare data with 2.7 million residents aged 65 years and older for the years 2000–2008 in the New England region of the USA.…”

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

“…Urban populations face elevated heat exposures from the urban heat island effect, where urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas due to land cover and building surfaces that absorb heat during the day and slowly release heat at night, causing warmer evening temperatures and decreased evapotranspiration (CDC 2013;Wilby 2008). It should also be noted that temperature variability, which will likely increase with climate change, also leads to negative health outcomes (Shi et al 2016).…”

The association between short and long-term exposure to PM2.5 and temperature and hospital admissions in New England and the synergistic effect of the short-term exposures

“…In addition, examination of the health effects of temperature has been almost exclusively focused on short-term exposures (days to a few weeks). However, recent studies of mortality cohorts have indicated that there are chronic effects of longer-term temperature exposure, and that temperature variability is a key predictor of health (15–19). Such exposures have not, to our knowledge, been studied for hospital admissions for acute events.…”