Chinese National Income, ca. 1661–1933

Abstract

This paper pulls together many primary and secondary sources to arrive at consistent estimates of national income for china between the 17th and 20th centuries. We find, in line with much of the literature, that GDP per capita declined between the mid-17th and 19th centuries. This trend reversed during the 19th century, mainly due to a shift into services and, for the late 19th century onwards, also in industry. Since these sectors exhibited higher labour productivity, this fostered economic growth. This pattern of decreasing share of services and industry from the 17th century and increasing shares in the 19th century is common in many Asian countries except Japan. The reasons for this development, however, are unclear. The standard ultimate factors of growth such as institutions (low marriage age for women, exclusive society) and geography apply to almost all Asian countries. Hence, more research is necessary.

Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Historical National Accounts, 1840–19121

“…Our estimation of total GDP is actually lower than in Xu et al . () since the population figures that we use are slightly lower than theirs. We can also compare our 1912 benchmark estimate of GDP per capita with other estimates for the 1910s.…”

“…Our estimates are very close to the most recent GDP per capita estimation in Xu et al . (), especially for 1850 and 1911. Our estimation of total GDP is actually lower than in Xu et al .…”

“…(), and Xu et al . () . Our estimation of the abovementioned commercial ratio includes the increase in the share of marketed products in both agricultural and industrial products.…”

“…38–9. The assumption of constant sectoral shares in agriculture across time has often been used in estimating China's historical agricultural production, such as in the Qing period before 1840 (Broadberry et al ., ) and in the period 1850–1911 (Xu et al ., ).…”

“… To avoid confusion, in the following text Xu et al . () is short for Xu, Shi, van Leeuwen, Ni, Zhang and Ma (). …”