Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence

Lugauer, Steven; Ni, Jinlan; Yin, Zhichao

doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2017.08.005

Cited by 59 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Sustainable pension development is of fundamental importance to socioeconomic development, as it has a close relationship with the stimulation of local economies and government income at a macroeconomic level [6], as well as changing household saving behaviors, fertility decisions and informal transfer at a microeconomic level [7][8][9]. Encouraging an increase in the fertility rate and delaying retirement are policy measures that are commonly adopted in countries across the globe to mitigate the adverse impacts of population aging process.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, according to pension shortage, households would change their behavior at a microeconomic level. Having more children and delaying retirement would help them to save more money to prepare for their self-funded retirement, and both actions would conversely affect the financial viability of the pension system [7,9]. However, compared with the literature that has investigated the causes and mechanisms of falling fertility rates, studies on the impacts of fertility changes on pension fund sustainability are rather limited [13][14][15].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Wang

Huang

2019

Sustainability

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Population aging is creating serious challenges for the sustainability of China’s pension system. To mitigate the adverse impact of the demographic shift, China has recently introduced fertility and retirement policy reforms. The research presented in this paper primarily evaluates the impacts of recent reforms on the financial sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Plan (UEPP). By using the Leslie matrix and actuarial models, the financial sustainability of the UEPP from 2019 to 2070 is projected and evaluated under a set of assumed policy reform scenarios. The results indicate that an imbalance in the pension fund would occur in the early 2020s and then expand under existing policies. Fertility adjustment, retirement delay, or combination reforms would not fundamentally solve this financial crisis in the long term. When 100% of couples have a second child and the retirement age is increased to 65, the current and accumulated pension deficits would drop by 50.05–67.56% and 35.88–54.23% between 2040 and 2070, respectively. Supplementary policy measures should be designed to encourage childbearing and retirement delay, including family support policies and top-designed pension system reform policies.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Wang

Huang

2019

Sustainability

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“…A complexity is that causality can run both ways. The demographic change affects GDP growth in China [17,18], and GDP growth has an obvious potential impact on carbon emission. GDP growth (or expected GDP growth) could impact the demographics through fertility rates and internal migration patterns.…”

Section: Influencing Factors Analysisof Carbon Emissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emission in China: A Panel Data Analysis

Xin

Xiao-min

2018

Sustainability

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The impact of population structure on carbon emission has always been a key area of research in modern society. In this paper, we propose a new expanded STIRPAT model and panel co-integration method to analyze the relationship between population aging and carbon emission, based on the provincial panel data in China from 1999 to 2014. Empirical results show that there exists a significant inverted U-shaped curve between the population aging and carbon emission. There also exist regional discrepancies, where the impact of the population aging on carbon emission in the eastern region is significantly positive. By contrast, a negative relationship arises in the central and western regions. Finally, several suggestions for low carbon development are provided.

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“…The average share of gross domestic savings of Ethiopia during the year 1980 to 2012 was 12.4% of GDP creating the average resource gap of 6.1% during these years (Ethiopian Investment Agency, 2010) as cited by Girma et al (2014). Lugauer et al (2017) argued on the saving behavior of Chinese households and confirmed that households with fewer dependent children have significantly higher saving rates. This result supports the idea that the decline in fertility rate has contributed to the increase in aggregate household saving over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Econometric analysis of socioeconomic and demographic determinants of rural households saving behavior: The case of Sinana district, Ethiopia

Negeri¹,

Kebede²

2018

J. Dev. Agric. Econ.

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This paper examines the major socioeconomic and demographic determinants of rural households' saving behavior in Sinana district, Ethiopia. A random sample of 267 rural households was selected from four rural kebeles of the district. The study used both descriptive statistics and econometric model for the analysis of primary data. The result of descriptive statistics demonstrates that 47.2% of the sampled households preferred formal saving, 33.3% preferred informal saving and 19.5% preferred both formal and informal saving behaviors, respectively. Econometric result confirms that the probability of preferring informal saving increases with increase in access to credit and distance from formal financial institution, and decreases with increase in square root of annual total income as compared to preferring formal saving behavior. Similarly, the probability of preferring both formal and informal saving behaviors increases with increase in the tropical livestock holding, and decreases with increase in land size as compared to preferring formal saving behavior. Therefore, these variables need special attention in addition to the intervention of concerned authority if the saving behavior of rural households is to be improved.

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Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence

Cited by 59 publications

References 21 publications

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emission in China: A Panel Data Analysis

Econometric analysis of socioeconomic and demographic determinants of rural households saving behavior: The case of Sinana district, Ethiopia

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