China’s Marriage Squeeze: A Decomposition into Age and Sex Structure

Abstract

Most recent studies of marriage patterns in China have emphasized the male-biased sex ratio but have largely neglected age structure as a factor in China’s male marriage squeeze. In this paper we develop an index we call “spousal sex ratio” (SSR) to measure the marriage squeeze, and a method of decomposing the proportion of male surplus into age and sex structure effects within a small spousal age difference interval. We project that China’s marriage market will be confronted with a relatively severe male squeeze. For the decomposition of the cohort aged 30, from 2010 to 2020 age structure will be dominant, while from 2020 through 2034 the contribution of age structure will gradually decrease and that of sex structure will increase. From then on, sex structure will be dominant. The index and decomposition, concentrated on a specific female birth cohort, can distinguish spousal competition for single cohorts which may be covered by a summary index for the whole marriage market; these can also be used for consecutive cohorts to reflect the situation of the whole marriage market.

Changes in Sex Ratio at Birth in China: A Decomposition by Birth Order

“…Drawing on the decomposition approach used by Kitagawa (1955), Das Gupta (1993) and Jiang et al (2016a), the method devised for this study can be outlined as follows. Let SRB denote sex ratio at birth, and M and F separately denote numbers of male births and female births during a period of time, so that: $$\mathit{SRB}=\frac{M}{F}\times 100.$$…”

Recent sex ratio at birth in China

“…During the decade, China implemented a stringent birth control policy. 10 Though the effect of this birth control policy on the SRB had been reappraised, 35 36 the entrenched son preference, combined with the restriction on the number of births, made sex-selective abortion of female fetuses quite common, 2 31 leading to an abnormally high SRB.…”

“…The SRB further rose to 111.45 in 1990, and 119.92 and 121.21 in the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, respectively. 2 Female infanticide, 3 adoption of girls without registration, 4 under-reporting of female births 5 and sex-selective abortion of female fetuses 5 6 were all listed as reasons for China’s high SRB. Sex-selective abortions contributed significantly to the rise in SRB.…”

“…Sex-selective abortions contributed significantly to the rise in SRB. 2 The high SRB and its related consequences have been numerously debated.…”

Family dynamics in China and Europe in the last half-century

“…In the 2010 census, the SRB was 118.6 (long form) and 117.96 (short form) 1 (PCO, 2012). Using an index of spousal sex ratio and taking the age structure into account, Jiang et al (2016) expected a shortage rather than an excess of eligible males in the years from 2010 to 2020. In contrast, after 2030 a shortage of female cohorts aged 25-40 and an excess of males are expected.…”