China and World Output Impact of the Hubei Lockdown During the Coronavirus Outbreak

Abstract

Using a network approach, we estimate the output loss due to the lockdown of the Hubei province triggered by the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19). Based on our most conservative estimate, China suffers about 4% loss of output from labor loss, and global output drops by 1% per period due to the economic contraction in China. About 40% of the impact is indirect, coming from spillovers through the supply chain inside and outside China. (JEL E23, E24, F62)

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: Detection by community viral surveillance

“…As variants with potentially increased transmissibility emerge (5), populations around the world continue to trade-off between social interactions and risk of infection (6). However, reduced social contact (7) has adverse effects on levels of economic activity (8), non-COVID-19 related health, and overall well-being (9). The ability of both individuals and governments to continue to balance these competing demands requires accurate and timely knowledge of the spread of the virus in the population so that informed choices about interventions can be made.…”

Building up an ecologically sustainable and socially desirable post-COVID-19 future

“…For example, economic functioning and free trade (usually associated with profitability and openness) promote the use of cheap, fast, and long-distance transportation, and can lead to the homogenization of tastes, products, and processes (Chu-Shore 2010 ). At the beginning of the crisis, the loss of accessibility to international trade with China—a single but major economic agent—deteriorated supply chains of industrial, medical, and key daily consumable goods worldwide (Luo and Tsang 2020 ). This cascading effect demonstrated the general risks associated with production relying on global connectivity.…”

The impact of COVID-19 on ASEAN

“…According to the estimation provided by the World Bank, which was published in June 2020, the pandemic is expected to cause a 5.2% contraction of global GDP (World Bank 2020). Researchers have already begun to investigate how the outbreak of the pandemic is affecting global macroeconomic trends (Fernandes 2020;McKibbin and Fernando 2020), as well as the specific impact on major economies such as the USA (Atkeson 2020) and China (Luo and Tsang 2020). In this paper, we examine the influence of COVID-19 on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).…”