China and North Korea: From Comrades-in-Arms to Allies at Arm's Length

Scobell, Andrew

doi:10.21236/ada421554

Cited by 40 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…For example, China, which provides significant aid to North Korea, has a unique opportunity to influence its actions (Cheng 2003). However, there is some concern that China's influence has been overstated (Scobell 2004). Some scholars question whether the North Koreans can be influenced by the Chinese or whether they tend to act in their own interests regardless of Chinese actions.…”

Section: Dealing With North Korea: Engagement or Coercionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coercion or Engagement? A Quantitative Test of the Effect of Regional Actors on North Korean Behaviour 1990–2000

Davies¹

2007

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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The Korean peninsula is one of the most dangerous places on the planet. Decisions relating to the peninsula are for high stakes, and one small error can potentially result in an enormously destructive war. This article seeks to assess whether strategies of engagement or coercion can improve the chances of North Korea co-operating with either the US or South Korea. Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) techniques I assess the behavioural patterns of the North Korean regime in response to the actions of the states involved in the six-party talks between 1990 and 2000. The article finds that there were dramatic differences between the negotiating strategies employed by both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in their dealings with both the US and South Korea. The results suggest that, in being able to manipulate US foreign policy, the North Koreans are punching well above their weight and that the chances of a meaningful settlement with the regime of Kim Jong Il are very small.

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Section: Dealing With North Korea: Engagement or Coercionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coercion or Engagement? A Quantitative Test of the Effect of Regional Actors on North Korean Behaviour 1990–2000

Davies¹

2007

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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“…21 In the eyes of the US, the positions of China and South Korea mean that these countries are of limited use as principal mediators in the negotiations. Opinion in the Six-Party Talks has therefore been typically split between China, South Korea and Russia on the one 19 For the US perspective on China's role in mediation and China-North Korean relations see Andrew Scobell, "China and North Korea: From Comrades -in -Arms to Allies at Arm's Length" [54], www. carlistel.army.ml/ssi/pdffiels/00364.pdf; Anne Wu, "What China Whispers to North Korea", Washington Quarterly, Vol.…”

Section: The Problem Of China's Mediation In the Six-party Talksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flawed Mediation and a Compelling Mission: Chinese Diplomacy in the Six-Party Talks to Denuclearise North Korea

Zhu

2011

East Asia

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This paper examines China's role in the Six-Party Talks, a multilateral initiative with the aim of denuclearising North Korea. As North Korea's behaviour has become increasingly provocative, evidenced by the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Incidents and the newly unveiled uranium enrichment plant at Yeonbyon, China's indecision in dealing with the deteriorating situation has dramatically undermined Beijing's ability to continue successfully to play the leading mediator role. Yet if China fails to take decisive action now, the consequences could be dire. Further deterioration in North Korea's behaviour could trigger a nuclear arms race, severely hamper regional economic development and even create a geopolitical split in East Asia, leading to a confrontation between the US, South Korea and Japan acting together on one side, and China, Russia and North Korea aligned on the other. The factors that have prevented China from making further progress in the diplomatic process are many and various and this paper will reveal the complexity of the North Korean issue for China. Foreign academics and policy makers have tended to attribute China's indecision over North Korea to China putting its own security interests first. But this is far too simplistic a picture of the complex relationship that China has with North Korea. There are a host of factors at work that need to be taken into account to understand the present impasse in the diplomatic process. These factors include China's emotional ties to North Korea and empathy with its position as the weakest party in the Talks, the conflicting attitudes within the Chinese government itself towards the North, and the competing interests and lack of trust between the different stakeholders. It seems that for the foreseeable future, the North Korean issue will continue to plague Chinese foreign policy until all the parties involved act as a collaborative body to reach a consensus on how to resolve the situation.

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“…The nature of Chinese influence over North Korea during this period, and particularly since the onset of the nuclear crisis in 2002, has become a virtual cottage industry because of U.S. hopes that China would bring its influence to bear on North Korean behavior (Mansourov 2003;Scobell 2004;Wu 2005;International Crisis Group 2006). The result is a divide among China scholars on the extent to which China is either capable or willing to influence North Korea in general and through the manipulation of economic assistance in particular.…”

Section: Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The following draws extensively on Kim 2005 and research by Erik Zhang for a project with TaiMing Cheung on China-North Korea economic relations. For broader overviews of the relationship, see Scobell 2004;Wu 2005;and International Crisis Group 2006. 37. Our interviews with Chinese scholars found that they were themselves divided on how to interpret this crucial event.…”

Section: The Aid Regime 269mentioning

confidence: 99%

Famine in North Korea: markets, aid, and reform

2008

Choice Reviews Online

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China and North Korea: From Comrades-in-Arms to Allies at Arm's Length

Cited by 40 publications

References 7 publications

Coercion or Engagement? A Quantitative Test of the Effect of Regional Actors on North Korean Behaviour 1990–2000

Coercion or Engagement? A Quantitative Test of the Effect of Regional Actors on North Korean Behaviour 1990–2000

Flawed Mediation and a Compelling Mission: Chinese Diplomacy in the Six-Party Talks to Denuclearise North Korea

Famine in North Korea: markets, aid, and reform

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