Childhood cross-ethnic exposure predicts political behavior seven decades later: Evidence from linked administrative data

Abstract

Does contact across social groups influence sociopolitical behavior? This question is among the most studied in the social sciences with deep implications for the harmony of diverse societies. Yet, despite a voluminous body of scholarship, evidence around this question is limited to cross-sectional surveys that only measure short-term consequences of contact or to panel surveys with small samples covering short time periods. Using advances in machine learning that enable large-scale linkages across datasets, we examine the long-term determinants of sociopolitical behavior through an unprecedented individual-level analysis linking contemporary political records to the 1940 U.S. Census. These linked data allow us to measure the exact residential context of nearly every person in the United States in 1940 and, for men, connect this with the political behavior of those still alive over 70 years later. We find that, among white Americans, early-life exposure to black neighbors predicts Democratic partisanship over 70 years later.

Leveraging knowledge about historical diversity: A meta-analysis of findings from the school of dialogue intergroup intervention.

“…That said, we understand the potential significance of this work from a developmental standpoint. Indeed, there is evidence that childhood engagement with diversity may have positive effects on intergroup attitudes even decades later (Brown et al, 2021). We hope to explore these issues in future editions of the School of Dialogue evaluation.…”

Race and Redistribution in the United States: An Experimental Analysis

“…Second, future research could address the extent to which our treatments alter beliefs about the ethnic composition of welfare recipients in the longer run; and also the extent to which such belief revisions persistently alter welfare support. This could be done by employing our basic research design over a longer time period (similar to Abramitzky et al (2020); Giuliano and Tabellini (2020); Brown et al (2021); ; Calderon et al (2021)).…”

Closing the Solidarity Gap? How Ethnic Diversity Alters Who We Are Willing to Support

“…A rich literature on political socialization points to the importance of the "impressionable years" and suggests that it is particularly preadult experiences that shape political attitudes (e.g., Alwin & Krosnick, 1991;Jennings & Markus, 1984). Recent studies extend this general argument and show that experiences with particularly ethnic diversity in childhood has long-lasting consequences for attitudes and behavior in adulthood (Brown et al, 2021;Eger et al, 2021;Goldman & Hopkins, 2020). If outgroup perceptions crystalize earlier in life, it is crucial to study their formation exactly in these formative years (see also Kustov et al, 2021).…”