Chapter Three: Darfur: The First Modern Climate-Change Conflict

Mazo, Jeffrey

doi:10.1080/19445571003755538

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [23,61,62]. These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [63], Uganda [64], Sudan [65], and Kenya [66] 2. The MENA Region: Climate models for the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual emissions trajectory) in the Middle East and North Africa estimate that by 2050 there will be at least a 100 days a year (and by 2100, over 200 days) when temperatures will cross into the 90th percentile for the region, with the hottest temperatures exceeding 100°F [20, •24].…”

Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [ 23 , 61 , 62 ]. These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [ 63 ], Uganda [ 64 ], Sudan [ 65 ], and Kenya [ 66 ], although the relative causal contributions of climate change, governance, population pressures, and preexisting sectarian divisions to outbreaks of organized violence remain a subject of intense debate [ 31 , 67 , 68 ]. Many people facing unpredictable weather, food insecurity, and in some cases violence have left their land for urban centers in African nations, where conflict with existing populations and discord over space and essentials may occur [ 69 – 71 ].…”

Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

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Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [ 23 , 61 , 62 ]. These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [ 63 ], Uganda [ 64 ], Sudan [ 65 ], and Kenya [ 66 ], although the relative causal contributions of climate change, governance, population pressures, and preexisting sectarian divisions to outbreaks of organized violence remain a subject of intense debate [ 31 , 67 , 68 ]. Many people facing unpredictable weather, food insecurity, and in some cases violence have left their land for urban centers in African nations, where conflict with existing populations and discord over space and essentials may occur [ 69 – 71 ].…”

Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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“…Darfur conflict that started in 2003 and brought costs in human life and population displacement is portrayed as the first modern climate change conflict [ 108 , 114 ]. Hakim (2011) offers a detailed picture of the multitude of factors that operated simultaneously in triggering the conflict.…”

Section: The Science-based Climate Change Topics: a Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People’s Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People’s Perceptions of Climate Change

Petrescu-Mag

Burny

Banatean-Dunea

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The way people perceive climate change scientific evidence becomes relevant in motivating or demotivating their climate actions. Climate change is one of the most publicized topics globally, and media has become an important “validator” of science. Therefore, science has become more exposed to criticism. Even when most scientists, decision makers, and laypeople agree on the robust evidence of climate science, there is still room for disagreement. The main aim of this paper is to reveal how climate change knowledge generated by science is perceived by the laypeople and to observe a possible gap between them. The study answered two questions “What are the main contrasting climate change topics in the scientific literature?” and “What are Romanian and Belgian participants’ perceptions of these topics?”. A qualitative approach was chosen for data analysis, using Quirkos software. The present cross-country study showed commonalities and differences of views between the two groups of participants regarding six climate change topics. Divergent perceptions among Belgians and Romanians came out, for example, within the theme “The heroes, villains, and victims of climate change.” Thus, whereas Belgians considered all people, including themselves, responsible for climate change, Romanians blamed mostly others, such as big companies, governments, and consumers. Additionally, both groups stated that climate change existed, but contrary to Belgians, Romanians voiced that climate change was often used as an exaggerated and politicized topic. The analysis revealed that perceptions about climate change, its causes, and its impacts are social constructs with a high degree of variability between and within the two national groups. The study argued that the cleavages between scientific literature and people’s views were blind spots on which a participatory approach was needed to better cope with climate change challenges.

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“…For example, Percival and Homer-Dixon have provided a strong case for how scarce environmental resources interacted with broader political, socioeconomic and physical constraints and produced civil conflict in South Africa in the early years of the post-apartheid era [57]. Similarly, Mazo has called the Darfur conflict (Sudan) as the first modern climate-change conflict, which escalated due to drought and scarce natural resources, among other reasons [58]. Introducing climate risk into the picture, Hendrix and Glaser have established a causal relationship between increased rainfall and decreased probability of civil conflict in Africa, but they did not find a strong link between climate change and violent conflict in general [59].…”

Section: Literature Review: Human Security and Forced Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of Large-Scale Forced Migration in Africa

Bayar¹,

Aral

2019

IJERPH

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In this paper, human security-related causes of large-scale forced migration (LSFM) in Africa are investigated for the period 2011–2017. As distinct from the conventional understanding of (national) security, human security involves economic, public health, environmental and other aspects of people’s wellbeing. Testing various hypotheses, we have found that civil and interstate conflicts, lack of democracy and poverty are the most important drivers of mass population displacements, whereas climate change has an indirect effect on the dependent variable. As a policy tool, foreign aid is also tested to see if it lowers the probability of LSFM. Our findings have implications for policy planning, since the conventional understanding of security falls short of addressing LSFM without taking various aspects of human security into account.

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Chapter Three: Darfur: The First Modern Climate-Change Conflict

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People’s Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People’s Perceptions of Climate Change

An Analysis of Large-Scale Forced Migration in Africa

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