Chaos theory discloses triggers and drivers of plankton dynamics in stable environment

Abstract

Despite the enticing discoveries of chaos in nature, triggers and drivers of this phenomenon remain a classical enigma which needs irrefutable empirical evidence. Here we analyze results of the yearlong replicated mesocosm experiment with multi-species plankton community that allowed revealing signs of chaos at different trophic levels in strictly controlled abiotic environment. In mesocosms without external stressors, we observed the “paradox of chaos” when biotic interactions (internal drivers) were acting as generators of internal abiotic triggers of complex plankton dynamics. Chaos was registered as episodes that vanished unpredictably or were substituted by complex behaviour of other candidates when longer time series were considered. Remarkably, episodes of chaos were detected even in the most abiotically stable conditions. We developed the Integral Chaos Indicator to validate the results of the Lyapunov exponent analysis. These findings are essential for modelling and forecasting behaviour of a variety of natural and other global systems.

A Review of the Serrated-Flow Phenomenon and Its Role in the Deformation Behavior of High-Entropy Alloys

“…Furthermore, chaos is related to how a deterministic dynamical system can be potentially unpredictable due to an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, which is also known as the "Butterfly Effect" [259]. Chaos has been observed in many different phenomena, including electric circuits [260][261][262], weather [263][264][265], physiological systems [266][267][268], financial markets [269][270][271], complex networks [272], the serrated flow in alloys [116,216,273], and ecological systems [274][275][276].…”

Dynamics of a stoichiometric producer-grazer model with maturation delay

“…For system (2.1) without delay, the period doubling route to chaos is not observed in this paper. As far as we know, chaotic dynamics from LKE model without or with delay is scarce, while it has been frequently displayed in communities consisting of two or more species, see [20,31,29,30] For the LKE model incorporating the maturation time of the grazer and the restriction of carbon and phosphorus elements in the producer, we see that the decrease of the minimal P:C in the producer can…”

An operational framework for defining and forecasting phytoplankton blooms

“…Determining when individual peaks with different species should be considered as distinct blooms or as a single composite bloom is not straightforward. However, there is substantial evidence of chaotic dynamics in plankton communities (Benincà et al 2008;Telesh et al 2019), and prediction of bloom conditions in such chaotic systems is highly dependent on earlier internal system states, including the dynamics of other species. It may be useful to consider multiple peaks of different taxa as composite blooms if they occur within a period of high and sustained productivity, are highly variable among years, and show evidence of chaotic dynamics (eg Lyapunov exponents greater than zero).…”

“…2008; Telesh et al . 2019), and prediction of bloom conditions in such chaotic systems is highly dependent on earlier internal system states, including the dynamics of other species. It may be useful to consider multiple peaks of different taxa as composite blooms if they occur within a period of high and sustained productivity, are highly variable among years, and show evidence of chaotic dynamics (eg Lyapunov exponents greater than zero).…”