Chaos and Organizational Emergence: Towards Short Term Predictive Modeling to Navigate a Way Out of Chaos

Abstract

The paper titled “Chaos and Organizational Emergence: Towards Short Term Predictive Modeling to Navigate a Way Out of Chaos” was presented at the Second International Conference on Complexity Science Management and Intelligent Information System held in Beijing-China from October 14th to October 16th 2011. The paper argued that although organizational emergence from chaotic events has often been described as unpredictable and random, at least when observed over the long term, through a literature review the path could be paved for the possible development of a forecasting model for making short term predictions during chaotic events so as to assist business practitioners in navigating their way out of chaos, thereby facilitating organizational emergence. As such, the paper built on chaos and complexity theory, as its foundational theory, and identified the most important factors and mechanisms cited in current literature that influence organizational emergence so as to potentially incorporate the factors in the future development of a short term forecasting model. Feedback on the ten minute presentation and the paper was received from international academics. The feedback is expected to eventually make its way to a doctoral dissertation on the topic. Generally the paper was well received and was awarded the third prize of the Xu Xusong Complex Science Management Award.This paper is available at:Organizational emergence from chaotic events has often been described as unpredictable and random, at least when observed over the long term. Through a literature review this paper paves the path for the possible development of a forecasting model for making short term predictions during chaotic events so as to assist business practitioners in navigating their way out of chaos, thereby facilitating organizational emergence. As such, the paper builds on chaos and complexity theory, as its foundational theory, and identifies the most important factors and mechanisms cited in current literature that influence organizational emergence so as to potentially incorporate the factors in the future development of a short term forecasting model

What Should Be Focused on When Digital Transformation Hits Industries? Literature Review of Business Management Adaptability

“…For example, the random situation of regaining a competitive advantage due to launching a marketing campaign and causing competitors to lose their leading position [46]. The edge of chaos is the tipping point as well as balance point for an organization to maintain a stable or unstable competitive advantage [49,50]. Failure to adapt to the edge of chaos will lead to destruction and threaten the survival of an organization [47,49].…”

“…The edge of chaos is the tipping point as well as balance point for an organization to maintain a stable or unstable competitive advantage [49,50]. Failure to adapt to the edge of chaos will lead to destruction and threaten the survival of an organization [47,49].…”

Envy effects on conflict dynamics in supervised work groups

“…More generally, Thiétart and Forgues (1995) argued that under some conditions organizations are likely to exhibit the qualitative properties of chaotic systems. This framework has been really fruitful: For instance, according to Vibert (2004), principles of chaos theory have helped organizational theorists to analyze several aspects of organizations; a list of "organizational propositions based on chaos and complexity theory" is provided in Houry (2012); small groups have been analyzed in terms of complex systems (Arrow et al 2000). For a recent review on teams considered as complex systems, the reader may refer to Ramos-Villagrasa et al (2018).…”

“…Other interesting contributions apply the principles of complexity theory to better understand the dynamic nature of emotion in organizations (Li et al 2010). However, chaos theory-which, according to some authors (Vibert 2004;Houry 2012), can be considered belonging to functional theories according to the taxonomy provided by Burrell and Gareth (2019, p. 22)-has often remained a metaphor (Tsoukas 1991;Flatau 1995) or a source of inspiration and an alternative imagery in organization theory (Tsoukas 1998, p. 306). According to Begun (1994), one of the reasons is that the quantitative modeling of organizational systems may be more difficult than modeling natural systems.…”