Changes over Time in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Cyclic Populations of Field Voles (<i>Microtus agrestis</i> L.)

Bierman, S.M.; Fairbairn, Jonathan P; Elston, David A.; Tidhar, David; Lambin, Xavier

doi:10.1086/501076

Cited by 90 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…More generally, it seems probable that the relative values of the forcing period (1 year) and the period of the local population dynamics will be critical, with the possibility of resonances. Recent field data for Kielder Forest suggest that changes in seasonal forcing have profound effects on population cycles and periodic travelling waves (Bierman et al 2006), and thus there is a pressing need to develop a mathematical theory of periodic travelling waves in seasonally forced systems. This theory would also enable exploration of the effects of less frequent but repeating external effects, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (Stenseth et al 2004) or 10-year sunspot cycles (Selås 2006a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Spatio-temporal patterns can be partly revealed by measuring how the synchrony between the population dynamics of different sites varies with the distance between sites. To illustrate this we present analysis of data on the field vole populations in Kielder Forest (see Lambin et al (1998Lambin et al ( , 2000, Mackinnon et al (2001) and Bierman et al (2006) for more details of this system and more detailed analysis). The raw data consist of average population density estimates from abundance indices (see Lambin et al (2000) for a methodological description) for a range of sites, over the period [1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990][1991][1992].…”

Section: Methods For Detecting Travelling Waves In Empirical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The raw data consist of average population density estimates from abundance indices (see Lambin et al (2000) for a methodological description) for a range of sites, over the period [1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990][1991][1992]. These are the years for which evidence of periodic travelling waves is the strongest: more recent data are not so indicative of a unidirectional wave (see Bierman et al 2006 for details). We selected the spring (March-May) and autumn (September-November) population estimates for the Kielder Forest area only.…”

Section: Methods For Detecting Travelling Waves In Empirical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, experiments in Kielder Forest have suggested that the cycles are not generated in this way (Graham & Lambin 2002; see also the related correspondence in Korpimäki et al (2003) and Lambin & Graham (2003)). Bierman et al (2006) analysed the temporal trends in the spatial and temporal dynamics in the Kielder Forest field vole dataset. They restricted the dataset to particular time frames and studied what happened to their estimates as the time frame was shifted.…”

Section: Empirical Evidence For Travelling Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3-4 years (Turchin 2003) plant-herbivore (Turchin 2003), plantherbivore-predator (Pitelka & Batzli 2007) wide-scale synchrony (Angerbjörn et al 2001) climatic forcing (Angerbjörn et al 2001) Kielder Forest field voles, Microtus agrestis 3-5 years (Turchin 2003) local environment (Ergon et al 2001), not predator-prey (Graham & Lambin 2002) TW (Lambin et al 1998;Mackinnon et al 2001;Bierman et al 2006) landscape obstacle (reservoir) grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus 2-5 years (Stenseth et al 1996) predator-prey (Bjørnstad et al 1999;Stenseth et al 2002) regional synchrony (Bjørnstad et al 1999;Stenseth et al 2002;Haydon et al 2003) seasonal forcing (Stenseth et al 2002;Haydon et al 2003), mobile predators (Bjørnstad et al 1999) Canadian lynx, Lynx canadensis 9-11 years (Turchin 2003) plant-herbivore-predator (Krebs et al 2001;Turchin 2003), plant-herbivore (Selås 2006a) large-scale synchrony Schwartz et al 2002;Rueness et al 2003;Selås 2006a), TW climatic forcing Selås 2006a), widespread movement by lynx (Schwartz et al 2002;Rueness et al 2003) spruce needleminer, Epinotia tedella 6-7 years (Münster-Swendsen 2002) host-parasitoid (Münster-Swendsen & Berryman 2005), plant-herbivore (Selås (2006a) regional synchrony (Münster-Swendsen 2002) unknown autumnal moth, Epirrita autumnata 9-1...…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations: field studies and reaction–diffusion models

Sherratt

Smith

2008

J. R. Soc. Interface.

156

123

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Periodic travelling waves have been reported in a number of recent spatio-temporal field studies of populations undergoing multi-year cycles. Mathematical modelling has a major role to play in understanding these results and informing future empirical studies. We review the relevant field data and summarize the statistical methods used to detect periodic waves. We then discuss the mathematical theory of periodic travelling waves in oscillatory reactiondiffusion equations. We describe the notion of a wave family, and various ecologically relevant scenarios in which periodic travelling waves occur. We also discuss wave stability, including recent computational developments. Although we focus on oscillatory reactiondiffusion equations, a brief discussion of other types of model in which periodic travelling waves have been demonstrated is also included. We end by proposing 10 research challenges in this area, five mathematical and five empirical.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methods For Detecting Travelling Waves In Empirical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methods For Detecting Travelling Waves In Empirical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Evidence For Travelling Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations: field studies and reaction–diffusion models

Sherratt

Smith

2008

J. R. Soc. Interface.

156

123

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Lemming and Vole Cycles: A New Intrinsic Model

Levay,

Nasser,

Zelko

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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It is 100 years since the first paper described the multiannual cycles in Arctic rodents and lagomorphs. The mechanisms driving population cycles in animals like lemmings and voles are complex, often attributed to extrinsic factors, such as food availability and quality, pathogens, parasites and/or predators. While extrinsic factors provide insights into population cycles, none fully explain the phenomenon. We propose an underlying innate, intrinsic mechanism, based on epigenetic regulation, that drives population cycles under harsh arctic conditions. We propose that epigenetically driven phenotypic changes associated with sexual development, growth and behaviour accumulate over time in offspring, eventually producing a phase change from rising population density to eventual population collapse. Under this hypothesis, and unlike previous hypotheses, extrinsic factors modify population cycles but would not be primary drivers. The interaction between our intrinsic cycle and extrinsic factors explains established phenomena like delayed‐density dependence, whereby population growth is controlled by time‐dependent negative feedback. We advocate integrating a century of field research with the latest epigenetic analysis to better understand the drivers of population cycles.

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The relationship between thermal spatial variability and mean temperature alters movement and population dynamics

et al. 2022

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The importance of spatial and temporal environmental variation in shaping ecosystem dynamics is well appreciated, yet the ecological consequences of dynamic spatial variability, that is, the temporal patterning of spatial variation, remain unresolved. Here, we experimentally generate temporally fluctuating thermal environments that have either a negative, positive, or neutral relationship between the mean spatial environmental temperature and the degree of thermal spatial heterogeneity. We test the hypothesis that the timing of spatial variation relative to diel temperature cycles can meaningfully alter movement patterns and population dynamics, using the motile green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Our results indicate that C. reinhardtii individuals growing in environments with positive relationships between spatial variability and mean temperature show reduced population growth rates, more directed movement as indicated by a reduced turning angle, and decreased negative thermotaxis over time, relative to those growing in environments with a negative relationship between spatial variability and mean temperature. We additionally document substantial regional variation in the dynamics of natural spatial variability by collecting summer water temperature measurements from five ponds in the Mount Saint Helens watershed, WA, USA. Our results collectively suggest that the dynamics of spatial variation are an underappreciated but salient feature within the broader interwoven fabric of spatiotemporal variation.

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Changes over Time in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Cyclic Populations of Field Voles (Microtus agrestis L.)

Cited by 90 publications

References 35 publications

Periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations: field studies and reaction–diffusion models

Periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations: field studies and reaction–diffusion models

Lemming and Vole Cycles: A New Intrinsic Model

The relationship between thermal spatial variability and mean temperature alters movement and population dynamics

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