Changes of Taxus chinensis var. mairei habitat distribution under global climate change

Climate change has a significant impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation worldwide. Hydrangea macrophylla is widely distributed and considered a model species for studying the distribution and responses of shrub plants under climate change. These results can inform decision‐making regarding shrub plant protection, management, and introduction of germplasm resources, and are of great importance for formulating ecological countermeasures to climate change in the future. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the change, scope expansion/reduction, centroid movement, and dominant climate factors that restrict the growth and distribution of H. macrophylla in China under current and future climate change scenarios. It was found that both precipitation and temperature affect the distribution of suitable habitat for H. macrophylla. Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM). After the establishment of the optimal model (FC = QP, RM = 0.5), the complexity and over‐fitting degree of the model were low (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.026, difference between training and testing area under the curve values = 0.0009), indicating that it had high accuracy in predicting the potential geographical distribution of H. macrophylla (area under the curve = 0.979). Overall, from the current period to future, the potential suitable habitat of this species in China expanded to the north. The greenhouse effect caused by an increase in CO2 emissions would not only increase the area of high‐suitability habitat in Central China, but also expand the area of total suitable habitat in the north. Under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), the migration distance of the centroid was the longest (e.g., By 2070s, the centroids of total and highly suitable areas have shifted 186.15 km and 89.84 km, respectively).

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 58%

Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt

Yan

Wang

Duan

et al. 2021

“…Notably, the suitable area of the two species will shrink from current period to future period because the plant growth, development and reproduction are vulnerable to the effects of increasing global temperature (Liu, Feng, et al, 2019). Our result is consistent with the previous findings of study of T. mairei (Li, Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2021). Meanwhile, the suitable area of Taxus cuspidata and Taxus wallichiana will be reduced with the rising temperature in the future (the 2050 and 2070) (Li et al, 2020; Su et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

“…This can be understood from the following two points. First, biological traits such as limited dispersal capacity, long generation time and low rate of seed germination of Taxus (Keppel et al, 2017 ; Li, Zhang, & Griffith, 2021 ; Li, Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2021 ; Ru, 2006 ; Wang et al, 2018 , 2019 ). Second, the main distribution region of the natural populations of the two species were in the mountains such as the Qinling, Nanling, and Wuyi Mountains in China (Fu et al, 1999 ; Li et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three topographical variables, including the elevation obtained from the WorldClim database ( https://worldclim.org ), and the slope and aspect obtained from Digital Elevation Model using the 3D analyst tools in the software ArcGIS 10.4. Five soil variables were downloaded from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD, https://www.fao.org/soils‐portal/data‐hub/soil‐maps‐and‐databases/harmonized‐world‐soil‐database‐v12/en/ ) based on previous studies (Guo et al, 2019 ; Li, Zhang, & Griffith, 2021 ; Li, Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2021 ; Ru, 2006 ), and the correlation coefficient between the five soil variables was less than 0.7 (Figure S3 ). Human interference index (HII) was downloaded from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu ) (Gallardo et al, 2015 ; Madella et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We conservatively defined the background range as an area surrounding our occurrence location by buffering a bounding box. We set the buffer distance as 7 degrees (about 779 km) based on the dispersion distance of the Taxus pollens and seeds (Brown et al, 2017 ; Li et al, 2015 ; Li, Zhang, & Griffith, 2021 ; Li, Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2021 ). A total of 10,000 background points were randomly generated using the function randomPoints in the dismo package (Hijmans et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter‐glacial

Wang

et al. 2022

Climate change affects the species spatio‐temporal distribution deeply. However, how climate affects the spatio‐temporal distribution pattern of related species on the large scale remains largely unclear. Here, we selected two closely related species in Taxus genus Taxus chinensis and Taxus mairei to explore their distribution pattern. Four environmental variables were employed to simulate the distribution patterns using the optimized Maxent model. The results showed that the highly suitable area of T. chinensis and T. mairei in current period was 1.616 × 105 km2 and 3.093 × 105 km2, respectively. The distribution area of T. chinensis was smaller than that of T. mairei in different periods. Comparison of different periods shown that the distribution area of the two species was almost in stasis from LIG to the future periods. Temperature and precipitation were the main climate factors that determined the potential distribution of the two species. The centroids of T. chinensis and T. mairei were in Sichuan and Hunan provinces in current period, respectively. In the future, the centroid migration direction of the two species would shift towards northeast. Our results revealed that the average elevation distribution of T. chinensis was higher than that of T. mairei. This study sheds new insights into the habitat preference and limiting environment factors of the two related species and provides a valuable reference for the conservation of these two threatened species.

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Zhao,

Wen,

Zhang

et al. 2023

Phellodendron has always been of great significance in promoting human health and ecological restoration. However, human activities and climate change have severely affected habitat, population dynamics and sustainable use of Phellodendron. Little is known about the geographical distribution pattern and their responses to climate change of Phellodendron. In order to reveal the impact of climate change on Phellodendron, we conducted a study based on natural distribution data of two species (297 occurrence points), 20 environmental factors, and an optimized MaxEnt model. Our results identified the main environmental factors influencing Phellodendron, predicted their potential geographical distribution, and assessed migration trends under climate change in China. Our analysis showed that Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense have potential suitable habitats of 62.89 × 104 and 70.71 × 104 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation were found to play an essential role in shaping the present geographical distribution of Phellodendron populations. Based on two future climate scenarios, we forecasted that the potential suitable habitat of Ph. amurense would decrease by 12.52% (SSP245) and increase by 25.28% (SSP585), while Ph. chinense would decline by 19.61% (SSP245) and 15.78% (SSP585) in the late‐21st century. The potential suitable habitats of Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense would shift to northward and westward, respectively. Hydrothermal change was found to be the primary driver of the suitable habitat of Phellodendron populations in the future. We recommend establishing nature reserves for existing Phellodendron populations, especially Ph. chinense. Our study provided a practical framework for the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Phellodendron species and guided regional cultivation, long‐term conservation, and sustainable use.