Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Abstract

Phellodendron has always been of great significance in promoting human health and ecological restoration. However, human activities and climate change have severely affected habitat, population dynamics and sustainable use of Phellodendron. Little is known about the geographical distribution pattern and their responses to climate change of Phellodendron. In order to reveal the impact of climate change on Phellodendron, we conducted a study based on natural distribution data of two species (297 occurrence points), 20 environmental factors, and an optimized MaxEnt model. Our results identified the main environmental factors influencing Phellodendron, predicted their potential geographical distribution, and assessed migration trends under climate change in China. Our analysis showed that Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense have potential suitable habitats of 62.89 × 104 and 70.71 × 104 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation were found to play an essential role in shaping the present geographical distribution of Phellodendron populations. Based on two future climate scenarios, we forecasted that the potential suitable habitat of Ph. amurense would decrease by 12.52% (SSP245) and increase by 25.28% (SSP585), while Ph. chinense would decline by 19.61% (SSP245) and 15.78% (SSP585) in the late‐21st century. The potential suitable habitats of Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense would shift to northward and westward, respectively. Hydrothermal change was found to be the primary driver of the suitable habitat of Phellodendron populations in the future. We recommend establishing nature reserves for existing Phellodendron populations, especially Ph. chinense. Our study provided a practical framework for the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Phellodendron species and guided regional cultivation, long‐term conservation, and sustainable use.

Potential Geographical Distribution of Lagerstroemia excelsa under Climate Change

“…The selection of General Circulation Model (GCM) predictions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios was based on previous studies [26]. The BBC_CSM model, developed by the National Climate Center of China, was employed due to its superior capability in simulating the East Asian climate compared to other climate models [27]. To analyze the behavior of the subject, we utilized future climate projections encompassing the 2050s (averaging from 2041 to 2060) and the 2070s (averaging from 2061 to 2080).…”

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

“…In contrast, it is possible to identify the response patterns of the same species to different climate changes ( Shi et al., 2022 ). The Maxent model has been widely used for species distribution modeling on Earth ( Jiang et al., 2022 ; Huang et al., 2023 ; Lai et al., 2023 ; Zhao et al., 2023 ).…”