Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

Balaji, M.; Chakraborty, Arun; Mandal, Mrinal Kanti

doi:10.1002/joc.5463

Cited by 76 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Using global coupled models, Jiang et al (2018) suggested that the predictability of TC genesis is closely linked to the model predictability of several large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields. Change-point detection analysis of accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE) carried out by Balaji et al (2018) revealed that there is a shift in ACE in recent decades. Specifically, ACE started increasing from 1997, and the observed twofold increase in ACE was due to the increase in the number and duration of very severe cyclonic storms in the satellite era (1981−2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

et al. 2020

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In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon. We consider three epochs; namely, the early (1955−74), middle (1975−94) and recent (1995−2014) epochs. It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) decreases throughout the three epochs. Over the Arabian Sea (ARB), however, there is a decrease in the early epoch, before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch, thus exhibiting epochal variability. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index (GPI) are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB. Over the ARB, thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture, surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch, and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis. However, all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

et al. 2020

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“…Figure a illustrates the cyclonic activity over BoB at its Cyclonic Stages (CS), and severe cyclone and above stages. There are several studies dealing with the cyclonic activity over BoB (Balaguru et al, ; Balaji et al, ) and they point towards increasing cyclonic activity over the bay. In recent years, most of the cyclones were identified to reach the intensity of severe cyclones and above categories.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyses of the oceanic heat content during 1980–2014 and satellite‐era cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Anandh

Das

Kumar

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Bay of Bengal (BoB) is one of the most cyclone prone regions in the world. Cyclones receive energy from warm ocean surface waters and the change in cyclone activity generally depends on the change in heat energy available in the upper ocean. Here, we use satellite‐based Modern Era Retrospective‐analysis for Research and Applications dataset, and reanalysis of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts–Ocean ReAnalysis System 4 (ECMWF–ORAS4) to analyse the oceanic heat content (OHC) and heat flux to identify sources of the additional heat input in the region during the period 1980–2014. It has been observed that during 1999–2014, heat energy is mainly stored in the southern and northwestern parts of the bay and it shows an increasing trend in both regions. In the analysis of OHC, the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data show a trend of −0.87 × 1018 J/month during 1980–1998 and 7.58 × 1018 J/month during 1999–2014 whereas, the SODA data show a trend of 0.94 × 1018 J/month during 1980–1998 and 5.25 × 1018 J/month during 1999–2014. It is found that many cyclones are seeded in the southeastern bay and intensified over the northwestern bay, consistent with the increase in cyclone heat potential and the upper ocean heat content (UOHC) in those regions. The heat flux in the bay is primarily governed by the heat entering the eastern side and leaving through the western side. In 1999–2014, the incoming heat flux along the eastern boundary has increased significantly (from 0.18 × 1012 to 0.57 × 1012 W/month), indicating that more heat enters the region. Furthermore, a significant reduction in the outgoing heat flux along the western boundary has also been found from the analysis. These processes trap the heat and thereby contributing to the increase in OHC in the bay. The heat flux through the bay is mainly linked with conditions prevailing over Pacific Ocean, such as, the heat influx of BoB decreases during El‐Nino and increases during La‐Nina years.

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“…The TC activity variation is related to SST, UOHC, TCWV, RH, LTT, and VWS. Balaji [36] [25,28,47]. On a monthly basis, TC activity was strong in November (13 TCs), October (12 TCs), May (8 TCs), and December (7 TCs) ( Figure 1b).…”

Section: Tc Activity In the Bay Of Bengalmentioning

confidence: 98%

Rainfall Contribution of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal between 1998 and 2016 using TRMM Satellite Data

Uddin

Cheung

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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In the Bay of Bengal (BoB) area, landfalling Tropical Cyclones (TCs) often produce heavy rainfall that results in coastal flooding and causes enormous loss of life and property. However, the rainfall contribution of TCs in this area has not yet been systematically investigated. To fulfil this objective, firstly, this paper used TC best track data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) to analyze TC activity in this area from 1998 to 2016 (January–December). It showed that on average there were 2.47 TCs per year generated in BoB. In 1998, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2016 there were 3 or more TCs; while in 2001, 2004, 2011, 2012, and 2015, there was only 1 TC. On a monthly basis, the maximum TC activity was in May, October, and November, and the lowest TC activity was from January to April and in July. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) were used to estimate TC rainfall contribution (i.e., how much TC contributed to the total rainfall) on an interannual and monthly scale. The result showed that TCs accounted for around 8% of total overland rainfall during 1998–2016, and with a minimum of 1% in 2011 and a maximum of 34% in 1999. On the monthly basis, TCs’ limited rainfall contribution overland was found from January to April and in July (less than 14%), whereas the maximum TC rainfall contribution overland was in November and December (16%), May (15%), and October (14%). The probability density functions showed that, in a stronger TC, heavier rainfall accounted for more percentages. However, there was little correlation between TC rainfall contribution and TC intensity, because the TC rainfall contribution was also influenced by the TC rainfall area and frequency, and as well the occurrence of other rainfall systems.

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Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

Cited by 76 publications

References 39 publications

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

Analyses of the oceanic heat content during 1980–2014 and satellite‐era cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Rainfall Contribution of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal between 1998 and 2016 using TRMM Satellite Data

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