Changes in the potential distribution of valuable tree species based on their regeneration in the Neotropical seasonal dry forest of north-western Argentina

Alabar, Fabio; Politi, Natalia; Názaro, Paula; Amoroso, Mariano M.; Rivera, Luis

doi:10.1017/s0376892922000133

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 45 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…Climate change exerts profound impacts on the geographic distribution and population dynamics of species, potentially hastening the loss of biodiversity [22][23][24][25]. For instance, Alabar et al [26] forecasted the distribution of eight tropical dry forest plant species and observed a southward shift in their potential range. Guo Yanlong et al [27] discovered that, under the most extreme warming scenarios, 22 tree species in southern China may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

Fang,

Shi,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Forests

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The gum acacia Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton (Fabales: Fabaceae) is a drought-tolerant plant belonging to the genus Acacia of the Leguminosae family, possessing significant economic and ecological value. Despite its importance, there is a knowledge gap regarding the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of S. senegal, crucial for the conservation of plant resources and optimizing its use in introductory silviculture. In this study, we selected 23 environmental variables and utilized the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of S. senegal worldwide and simulate the current and future distribution range of S. senegal in Pakistan under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios. The results highlight key environmental factors influencing the distribution of S. senegal, including BIO3 (isothermally), BIO4 (coefficient of seasonal variation of temperature), BIO11 (mean temperature of the coldest season), and BIO12 (annual precipitation). Regions with higher and less fluctuating temperatures exhibit a higher potential for S. senegal distribution. Currently, suitable habitats of S. senegal are concentrated in the southern region of Pakistan, covering provinces such as Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, with highly suitable habitats accounting for 6.06% of the total area. Under the current climatic conditions, this study identifies the spatial patterns of suitable habitats and their concentration in specific regions. With climate change, a notable expansion of suitable habitats towards higher latitudes is observed, with the most significant expansion under the extremely severe climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), reaching 223.45% of the current level. The results of this study enhance our understanding of the dynamics of S. senegal distribution under climate change and offer valuable insights into the long-term introduction of S. senegal for afforestation and soil conservation in Pakistan. This study provides theoretical support for the sustainable development of the local ecosystem and socio-economy, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to adapt to changing climatic conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

Fang,

Shi,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Forests

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Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100

Barboza,

Bravo,

Cotrina‐Sanchez

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93–0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.

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Changes in the potential distribution of valuable tree species based on their regeneration in the Neotropical seasonal dry forest of north-western Argentina

Cited by 2 publications

References 45 publications

Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100

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