Changes in the frequencies of northeast monsoon rainy days in the global warming

Naidu, C. V.; Satyanarayana, G.; Durgalakshmi, K.; Rao, L M; Mounika, G. Jeevana; Raju, A. Dharma

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.04.009

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The south Asian monsoon, controlled by wind and temperature, is a major source of rainfall and flooding over India (Figure 3). Observations show that there is enhanced monsoon rainfall over South Peninsular India associated with a stronger easterly wind belt in recent decades (Naidu et al. 2012).…”

Section: In a Warmer Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Floods in a Changing Climate

Andersen¹,

Shepherd²

2013

Geography Compass

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Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood projections based on sources of precipitation, ice and snow melt, and coastal inundation. Topographic and anthropogenic influences that exacerbate or reduce flood risks by altering surface runoff, infiltration, storage, and precipitation development are also considered. Flood mitigation and adaptation strategies for infrastructure, agriculture, public health, and local communities are explored along with uncertainties and challenges in flood research. Recent and upcoming datasets to help with future flood monitoring and prediction include satellite missions, advanced radar, and in-situ networks.

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Section: In a Warmer Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Floods in a Changing Climate

Andersen¹,

Shepherd²

2013

Geography Compass

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“…According to Naidu et al . (; ), a weak Southern Oscillation Index, intensified lower troposphere easterlies over the major part of the northeast monsoon region, an increase in the north–south temperature gradient and the strengthening of the subtropical westerly jet over north India are responsible for the enhancement of northeast monsoon rainfall over SP India in the global warming period. Surplus rainfall in active monsoon epochs releases abundant amounts of latent heat energy into the atmospheric system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Naidu et al . () stated that the cold and dry continental air mass from the Siberian high may not provide copious amounts of rainfall during the northeast monsoon season. However, it influences SP India as it passes through the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal by picking up moisture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursors of northeast monsoon rainfall variability during extreme epochs of the global warming era

Prasanna

Kumar

Naidu

2020

Meteorological Applications

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The smoothed time series of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular (SP) India has revealed two extreme active epochs (1877-1887 and 2005-2015) and two extreme weak epochs (1899-1909 and 1980-1990) during 1871-2016. Only the recent two epochs 1980-1990 and 2005-2015 were chosen due to data constraints. For these two epochs, the distribution of zonal wind pattern at the 850 and 200 hPa levels, latent heat flux, vertical shear in the zonal wind between 850 and 200 hPa, sea surface temperature and outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) were studied. The vertical profile of zonal wind over the mean position of the subtropical westerly jet and the maximum wind reversal were also analysed. Further, the frequencies of dry days, little rainfall days (0-20 mm), moderate rainfall days (20-60 mm), heavy rainfall days (60-100 mm) and very heavy rainfall days (>100 mm) were evaluated. SP India has experienced active/weak monsoon conditions every one to two decades alternately. An active monsoon epoch shows a higher north-south temperature gradient over the Bay of Bengal than a weak monsoon epoch. An upper level subtropical westerly jet over north India, strong tropical easterlies in the lower troposphere and low vertical shear in the zonal wind over the Bay of Bengal were observed during the active epoch, which facilitates the transportation of good amounts of moisture to SP India. The low OLR values over SP India in the active monsoon epoch indicate more convective activity over that region. Enhanced rainfall activity over SP India in the active monsoon epoch is due to the enhanced frequency of very heavy, heavy, moderate and little rainfall events and the reduced frequency of dry days. K E Y W O R D S active epoch, latent heat flux, northeast monsoon, weak epoch, zonal wind

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“…Historically, flood extremes caused the most frequent and devastating forms of disasters (Zolina et al, 2004;Herget and Meurs, 2010;Kehew et al, 2010;Diodato and Bellocchi, 2012;Naidu et al, 2012;Tramblay et al, 2012). Flood disasters in the middle Yellow River were constantly caused by backwater effects due to the multiple river stream confluence effects (Qian, 1992;Yu and Lin, 1996;Wang, 2004;He et al, 2006He et al, , 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flood frequency analysis has often been used previously in studying the trend of river floods (Beven, 1997;Macdonald and Werritty, 2001;Glaser and Stangl, 2003). Various indices, including skewness coefficient, Monte Carlo experiments distribution functions of normal, threeparameter lognormal, Gumbel, Pearson Type 3, Weibull, Pareto, and uniform, have been introduced to monitor river floods on the basis of the regional flood characteristics (Cunnane, 1988;Burn, 1990Burn, , 1997Bobee et al, 1996;Jain and Lall, 2000;Jun-Haeng et al, 2001;Javelle et al, 2002;Palmer and Raisanen, 2002;Christensen and Christensen, 2003;Mudelsee et al, 2003;Greenbaum et al, 2010;Herget and Meurs, 2010;Naidu et al, 2012). These flood indices are effective in relating flood dynamics to precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Confluent flow impacts of flood extremes in the middle Yellow River

Tian

et al. 2015

Quaternary International

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Changes in the frequencies of northeast monsoon rainy days in the global warming

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

Floods in a Changing Climate

Floods in a Changing Climate

Precursors of northeast monsoon rainfall variability during extreme epochs of the global warming era

Confluent flow impacts of flood extremes in the middle Yellow River

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