Changes in the forest ecosystems in areas impacted by aridization in south-western Romania

Prăvălie, Remus; Sîrodoev, Igor; Peptenatu, Daniel

doi:10.1186/2052-336x-12-2

Cited by 41 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The expected increase of drought is small in the Czech Republic and Austria, but substantial in Slovakia, Hungary [73] and Romania [74] with a clear acceleration in Southern Ukraine and Russia. A prediction of growth of forests in the West Carpathians by growth simulator SIBYLA and process-based model BIOME-BGC for 2012-2050 and 2071-2100 (used RCMs are based on Scenario A1B, warming from 3 to 4 • C, decreased summer precipitation at −10% and increased winter one at 10% by end of the 21st century) reported the expected substantial negative impact on growth of beech and Norway spruce, with substantial variation dependently on the elevation, particularly for the stands receding edge, but favorable conditions for oak [75].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

Shvidenko

Buksha²,

Krakovska

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone-a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country's forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM) based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a "dry and warm" scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation). The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961-1990), "recent" (1991-2010) and three future periods: 2011-2030, 2031-2050 and 2081-2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora's tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country's forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests.Keywords: Ukrainian forests; climate change; xeric belt; predictions of state and distribution of forests over 21st century; Mid-Latitude ecotone

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

Shvidenko

Buksha²,

Krakovska

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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“…This can be termed areal migration of the turnover, which comes from municipalities with small budgets (but rich in forest mass) and is transferred to other urbanized municipalities. The other important aspect is that the forest activities that have developed in forested municipalities do not provide added value to the woody resources (e.g., logging activities in contrast to furniture production, which produces more value and implies more qualified employees) [42][43][44].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Fractal Analysis in Modeling the Dynamics of Forest Areas and Economic Impact Assessment: Maramureș County, Romania, as a Case Study

Pintilii

Andronache

Diaconu

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:This study uses fractal analysis to quantify the spatial changes of forest resources caused by an increase of deforested areas. The method introduced contributes to the evaluation of forest resources being under significant pressure from anthropogenic activities. The pressure on the forest resources has been analyzed for Maramures , County, one of the most deforested counties in Romania. In order to evaluate this, the deforested areas were calculated for the period of 2001-2014, by using the Global Forest Change 2000-2014 database. The Fractal Fragmentation Index (FFI) and Fixed Grid 2D Lacunarity (FG2DL) were used to quantify the degree of fragmentation and dispersion of the forested areas, and thereby the extent to which a forest area is affected by deforestation. The process of quantifying the pressure on forested areas included the creation of a database for the period of 2000-2014 containing economic activities (turnover) related to woody recourses, important indicators of forest exploitation. Taken together, the results obtained indicate a dramatic increase in deforested areas (over 19,122 ha in total for the period of analysis), in Maramures , County.

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“…In this eventuality, the following are worth mentioning: the forest ecosystems in northern Dobrogea, possibly degraded (Prăvălie and Bandoc, 2015), similarly to certain analysed cases in southern Romania, where withering was detected, against the background of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures in the warm season (Prăvălie et al, 2014c;Prăvălie et al, 2014a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Climatic water balance dynamics over the last five decades in Romania’s most arid region, Dobrogea

Bandoc

Prăvălie

2015

J. Geogr. Sci.

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The analysis of a territory's climatic water balance dynamics against the background of climate change is a key component for increasing water resource management efficiency. The present study aims to analyse climatic water balance (CWB) dynamics in Romania's most arid region, Dobrogea, located in the southeast. The study covers the 1961-2009 period, and is based on annual and seasonal CWB values (mm), provided by nine weather stations located throughout the region. The study, based on statistical and GIS techniques, is divided into two main stages, both carried out at annual and seasonal scales -trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test, the Sen's slope method, and CWB value distribution type analysis. In order to identify the probabilistic types of distributions, four mathematical models were identified-Pearson, Gamma, Chi-Squared and Wakeby, statistically verified with the P-P Plot, Q-Q Plot and Probabillity Difference Graph (PDG) curve tests. Thus, in terms of trends, the results showed a deficit increase especially at the northern stations, mainly for annual values (with a peak in the northeast, where CWB rates reached -3.2 mm/yr). While general CWB declines occurred in winter, spring and summer, apparent decrease rates were found in the northern region (highest negative rates-summer, northwest, -1.4 mm/yr). Autumn is an exception, due to overall increase rates which peaked in the southwest (2.3 mm/yr). However, the entire trend analysis indicated a general lack of statistical significance. The distribution type histogram analysis showed that, annually and seasonally, deficit values are generally dominant (more noticeable in the northern region), except for the winter season, mainly characterized by surplus intervals. Thus, the results suggest a climatic water deficit increase over the last five decades especially in northern Dobrogea, which signals the need for a spatial prioritization targeting a more efficient water resource management, necessary first and foremost for increasing regional agricultural system productivity.

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Changes in the forest ecosystems in areas impacted by aridization in south-western Romania

Cited by 41 publications

References 34 publications

Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

Using Fractal Analysis in Modeling the Dynamics of Forest Areas and Economic Impact Assessment: Maramureș County, Romania, as a Case Study

Climatic water balance dynamics over the last five decades in Romania’s most arid region, Dobrogea

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