Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract:Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone-a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country's forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM) based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a "dry and warm" scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation). The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961-1990), "recent" (1991-2010) and three future periods: 2011-2030, 2031-2050 and 2081-2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora's tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country's forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests.Keywords: Ukrainian forests; climate change; xeric belt; predictions of state and distribution of forests over 21st century; Mid-Latitude ecotone

Modelling the impacts of intensifying forest management on carbon budget across a long latitudinal gradient in Europe

“…This area is located in the mountain conditions of Carpathians, on a steep slope at 1280 m a.s.l. We also did not consider pine forests located in bioclimatic zones of southern forest steppe and steppe, because these territories belong to a xeric belt (an ecotone between the forest zone and southern forestless dry lands) where pine forests are forecasted as a tipping element due to the critical water stress there (Shvidenko et al 2017).…”

“…Several studies have predicted that the growth of Scots pine and Norway spruce will increase by climate change due to improved climatic conditions and accelerated nutrient cycling, particularly in the boreal and temperate regions where a water stress is not expected (Lindner et al 2010, Hlasny et al 2011. The risk for severe drought periods is, however, projected to increase especially in the southernmost areas of the distribution of these tree species, out of the study area (Babst et al 2013, Zang et al 2014, Shvidenko et al 2017, adding uncertainty to the predictions. Increased drought may also increase the risk of fires and insect outbreaks as these stands get more stressed.…”

Impact of Disturbances on the Carbon Cycle of Forest Ecosystems in Ukrainian Polissya

“…International efforts to mitigate global climate change demonstrate both evident progress and significant challenges to overcome due to the complexities of carbon cycle regulation worldwide, as well as substantial uncertainties in the mechanisms of its estimation [5]. The forests of Ukraine, covering nearly 16% of the country's land area and providing a substantial carbon sink [6], have recently undergone changes and are very likely to face high climate, hydrology, and management-induced risks in the future [7]. Ukraine's forests are situated in the mid-latitude ecotone, that is, in a transition area between the zone of temperate forests and forestless steppe: e.g., according to the abovementioned study [7], under certain climatic scenarios, a substantial worsening of growth conditions in Ukraine is forecasted by the end of this century mainly due to the water stress.…”

Stakeholder Analysis to Support Secondary Norway Spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) Forest Conversion in the Ukrainian Carpathians

“…Secondary spruce stands are vulnerable to many challenges today (Schutz et al 2006), with climate change being chief among them . Recently, some studies have shown that spruce stand dominance will decline in the Ukrainian Carpathians over the next 500 years due to climate change (Hlásny et al 2016, Shvidenko et al 2017, Kruhlov et al 2018. A sharp increase in the number of cumulative dry days, a significant decrease of precipitation during a growing season, and a higher frequency of extreme events (drought, windstorms, abundant rainfall within short periods of time) are regarded as the most detrimental factors facing Norway spruce.…”