Changes in temperature and precipitation in the instrumental period (1951–2018) and projections up to 2100 in Podgorica (Montenegro)

Abstract

The article presents the results of the analysis of several temperature and precipitation parameters in the instrumental period in the capital of Montenegro-Podgorica, for the period 1951-2018. In order to use the latest results of several Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed for the Western Balkans, the results of temperature and precipitation modelling for the period 2011-2100, ALADIN, HIRHAM i RACMO models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, are also presented. For the observed 68-year period (1951-2018), the trend calculations clearly show that the temperature is rising. This is indicated by all the analysed temperature parameters (TY, TW, TSp, TSu, TA, TYx, TYn, FD, ID, SU, TD, TR, T35+ and T40+). Although seasonal and annual precipitation totals do not show significant changes in the instrumental period, Podgorica's climate has become more arid and extreme, as the number of days with precipitation ≥1 mm (R1) has significantly decreased. Conversly, the number of days with precipitation has increased ≥40 and 50 mm (R40 and R50). The projected changes in the considered precipitation parameters are in most cases insignificant. The obtained results indicate that there is a high agreement between the temperatures projections of the three models used. Concerning precipitation, it appears that their modelling is more complex, because there are visible qualitative and quantitative differences in the projections of models of future changes in seasonal and annual sums (RY, RW, RSp, RSu and RA), that is, the number of precipitation days (R0.1, R1, R10, R20, R30, R40 and R50). The projections of the used models show that in the future we can expect a warmer climate with more extremes of temperature and precipitation in the grid area to which Podgorica belongs. K E Y W O R D S climate projections, instrumental period, Montenegro, Podgorica, precipitation, temperature 1 | INTRODUCTION Articles in the field of climatology for the area of Montenegro are rare. In the last two decades, many records of temperature, precipitation, wind and so on have been set in the territory of this small Mediterranean country (Buri c et al., 2011; Buri c et al., 2015; Buri c et al., 2019). Kutiel et al. (2015) investigated rainfall series for the

Synoptic characteristics of an extreme weather event: The tornadic waterspout in Tivat (Montenegro), on June 9, 2018

“…Montenegro does not have a developed system for waterspouts observation and the national IHMSM does not have available data about waterspout and landspout frequency or intensity. There is a significant trend in temperature increase during the last 6-7 decades in Montenegro (Burić et al, 2019;Burić et al, 2020). Generally, higher temperature means energy surplus in the atmosphere which is released in the form of frequent extreme weather events.…”

Spatio‐temporal changes in the mean and extreme temperature indices for Serbia

“…(2018a) for the Peripannonian region of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Burić and Doderović (2021) pointed out that the increase in the average maximum temperature was faster (0.37 °C⋅decade −1 ) than the average minimum (0.17 °C⋅decade −1 ) temperature in Podgorica (Montenegro) during the period of 1951–2018.…”

“…Over the last few decades, the Western Balkans region has been experiencing more frequent weather extremes, such as extreme temperatures and heat waves (Spinoni et al ., 2014). An increase (decrease) in the frequency of warm (cold) extremes was obtained for the neighbouring countries, for example, Croatia (Nimac et al ., 2021), Bosnia and Herzegovina (Trbić et al ., 2017), and Montenegro (Burić et al ., 2014; Burić and Doderović, 2021). Significant increasing trends for the temperature extremes were detected in Romania in all seasons, except for autumn, with the highest increasing rate in summer (Busuioc et al ., 2015).…”

Non-monotonic trend analysis using Mann-Kendall with self-quantiles

“…Generally, non-monotonic trends do not change total amount of hydro-meteorological variables. Burić and Doderović, (2021) stated that the climate of Podgorica (Montenegro) is getting more arid but total precipitation has not significant trends. Trends may not be a sign of non-stationarity (Oruc, 2021;Serinaldi et al, 2018).…”