Changes in Qinghai Lake Area and Their Interactions with Climatic Factors

Abstract

Lakes play a crucial role in the global water cycle and significantly contribute to enhancing regional ecological environments and simulating economic growth. In this study, based on the data from the Landsat TM 4-5, Landsat 7 ETM SLC-off, and Landsat 8-9 OLI/TIRS C2 L2 satellites, the surface area of Qinghai Lake is obtained by using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) method. Additionally, leveraging the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation land surface reanalysis dataset (ERA5-Land), we analyzed the interplay between lake area and related climate factors by using the Noise Assisted–Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (NA-MEMD) and wavelet coherence analysis method. The surface area of Qinghai Lake showed an overall expansion trend from 1986 to 2022, with an expansion rate of 2.89 km2/a. Precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) also showed an increasing trend, with the largest increasing trend in autumn, summer, and summer, respectively. The area of Qinghai Lake did not demonstrate distinct periodic patterns from 1986 to 2022, in contrast to the marked 8–16 month oscillations observed in precipitation, temperature, and ET. In the phase of lake area expansion between 2008 and 2016, changes in the lake’s surface area were observed to trail behind variations in precipitation and temperature by approximately three months. Furthermore, the shift in ET was found to lag behind alterations in the lake area, displaying a delay of 3–6 months.