Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966–2015

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1990-8

Cited by 30 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…For example, the start of a rainy period in the end of the 1970s and in the beginning of the 1980s is characterised by an upward shift in annual precipitation detected in many stations. Similar regime shifts were also found for the three Baltic countries (Jaagus et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Based on the data of two stations (Vilsandi and Tiirikoja, Estonia), an abrupt increase was observed in the zonal component of average air flow from January to March, in air temperature for January and February, and in precipitation for February (Keevallik, 2011). However, the precipitation regime in the eastern Baltic region can be characterised by a very high spatial and temporal variability and thus there are few reliable trends in time series of precipitation (Jaagus et al, 2010(Jaagus et al, , 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Time series of monthly, seasonal and annual mean air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers in Estonia are analysed for detecting of trends and regime shifts during 1951-2015. Trend analysis is realised using the Mann-Kendall test and regime shifts are detected with the Rodionov test (sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts). The results from Estonia are related to trends and regime shifts in time series of indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Annual mean air temperature has significantly increased at all 12 stations by 0.3-0.4 K decade −1 . The warming trend was detected in all seasons but with the higher magnitude in spring and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 3-4 days decade −1 . Changes in precipitation are not clear and uniform due to their very high spatial and temporal variability. The most significant increase in precipitation was observed during the cold half-year, from November to March and also in June. A time series of specific runoff measured at 21 stations had significant seasonal changes during the study period. Winter values have increased by 0.4-0.9 L s −1 km −2 decade −1 , while stronger changes are typical for western Estonia and weaker changes for eastern Estonia. At the same time, specific runoff in April and May have notably decreased indicating the shift of the runoff maximum to the earlier time, i.e. from April to March. Air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers are highly correlated in winter determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Correlation coefficients between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices reflecting the intensity of westerlies, and the studied variables were 0.5-0.8. The main result of the analysis of regime shifts was the detection of coherent shifts for air temperature, snow cover duration and specific runoff in the late 1980s, mostly since the winter of 1988/1989, which are, in turn, synchronous with the shifts in winter circulation. For example, runoff abruptly increased in January, February and March but decreased in April. Regime shifts in annual specific runoff correspond to the alternation of wet and dry periods. A dry period started in 1964 or 1963, a wet period in 1978 and the next dry period at the beginning of the 21st century.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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“…In general, the water area delineated from the satellite images in early spring was approximately 3 times larger than that in summer. Such a pattern will probably be sustained in the future with some shift from spring to winter following the climatic projections for precipitation (stable in the spring and slight increase during the winter) [29].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Evaluation of Land Cover Changes in Southwestern Lithuania from 1984 to 2018 Using Medium Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery

Gozdowski¹,

Žukovskis²,

Kaziukonytė³

et al. 2020

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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In this study, we assess the land cover changes in southwestern Lithuania from 1984 to 2018. These changes were examined using data derived from Landsat 5, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2 multispectral images. The study area encompasses the Nemunas Delta, which is affected by river-induced floods leading to seasonal variations in water coverage. The water-covered area was found to be quite stable across the years during the dry seasons, i.e., in summer and early autumn. A significant increase in forested areas was observed during the study period (from 15.1% to 19.0% of the total area). During the examined period, the average size of agricultural parcels decreased several times (from approximately 35 ha to approximately 5 ha), which was caused by the transition from socialist to private ownershipbased agricultural practices in the early 1990s. Almost all changes observed had rather positive environmental impacts (for biodiversity and maintenance of wildlife). Positive impacts included the establishment of several new protected territories between analysed periods. Negative impacts included the construction of wind turbines (approximately 50 in the area of study), which were not present at the beginning of the study period and may negatively affect the natural (agricultural and wetland) landscape of the region.

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“…Examples exist of both increasing and decreasing trends in different areas for different periods and seasons. Positive trends were detected for the cold part of the year for Fennoscandia by Benestad et al (2007) and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania by Jaagus et al (2018). Along with warming it is also noted that the fraction of snowfall to total precipitation is decreasing with time (Hynčica and Huth, 2019;Luomaranta et al 2019).…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 95%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and they can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared and to save human lives and to invest in adaptation options. Natural Hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. We here summarise existing knowledge of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with the focus on past 200 years, as well as future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructures, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, but also concerning specific events, for example, occurrences of marine heat waves and small-scale variability of precipitation. Suggestions for future research includes further development of high-resolution Earth System models, and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to expected impact of climate change, changes are expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase) and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding and extreme waves) the change depends on the area and time period studies.

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Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966–2015

Cited by 30 publications

References 38 publications

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

Evaluation of Land Cover Changes in Southwestern Lithuania from 1984 to 2018 Using Medium Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

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