Changes in Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks under the Background of Arctic Amplification

Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0650.1

Cited by 59 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…Also the presence of ice edges and marginal ice zones (which only existed to the south in previous decades) creates horizontal temperature gradients that can create low level wind jets, several of which were experienced during the cruise (Guest et al, ; Persson et al, ). More open water will likely result in generation of previously‐rare mesoscale cyclones, including Polar Lows (Inoue et al, ), and also may result in changes to synoptic‐scale cyclone storm tracks, bringing more storms into the region (Wang et al, ). These phenomena indicate the importance of considering atmospheric feedbacks in understanding air‐ice‐ocean interaction and wave generation in the Arctic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Ackley²,

et al. 2018

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A large collaborative program has studied the coupled air‐ice‐ocean‐wave processes occurring in the Arctic during the autumn ice advance. The program included a field campaign in the western Arctic during the autumn of 2015, with in situ data collection and both aerial and satellite remote sensing. Many of the analyses have focused on using and improving forecast models. Summarizing and synthesizing the results from a series of separate papers, the overall view is of an Arctic shifting to a more seasonal system. The dramatic increase in open water extent and duration in the autumn means that large surface waves and significant surface heat fluxes are now common. When refreezing finally does occur, it is a highly variable process in space and time. Wind and wave events drive episodic advances and retreats of the ice edge, with associated variations in sea ice formation types (e.g., pancakes, nilas). This variability becomes imprinted on the winter ice cover, which in turn affects the melt season the following year.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Ackley²,

et al. 2018

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“…Eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is used to identify storm tracks (Deng & Jiang, ; Takahashi & Shirooka, ; Wang et al, ). It is expressed as

EKE = \frac{1}{2} ((), u^{' 2} + v^{' 2})

where u and v are the zonal and meridional wind, respectively, and prime indicates the synoptic‐scale variability filtered by a 2–8 day band‐pass Lanczos filter (Duchon, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is used to identify storm tracks (Deng & Jiang, 2011;Takahashi & Shirooka, 2014;Wang et al, 2017). It is expressed as…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the North Pacific, the meridional shift of the storm track can be modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). An equatorward shift and eastward extension of the storm track has been observed during El Niño winters, and vice versa during La Niña winters (Straus & Shukla, 1997;Trenberth & Hurrell, 1994;Wang et al, 2017). In the North Atlantic, the North Atlantic Oscillation is known as the dominant contributor to the interannual variation of the storm track (Bader et al, 2011;Burkhardt & James, 2006;Chang, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

Wang

Kim

Chang

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic‐scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO‐storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

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“…In addition to warming SSTs, over the past three decades the Arctic has warmed faster than the lower latitudes, known as Arctic amplification (AA; Hansen et al, ; Orsi et al, ; Screen & Simmonds, ). AA has been hypothesized to modify atmospheric circulation patterns and influence midlatitude extreme weather (Barnes & Screen, ; Cohen et al, , ; Francis & Vavrus, , ; Wang et al, ). Over the midlatitudes of North America and the North Atlantic, Francis and Vavrus (, ) found links between AA and a weaker and higher amplitude (wavier) jet stream in most seasons since 1979, facilitating more persistent extreme weather.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms of Abrupt Extreme Precipitation Change Over the Northeastern United States

2018

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In 1996, the northeastern United States experienced an abrupt increase in extreme precipitation, but the causal mechanisms driving this increase remain poorly understood. We find that 89% of the 1996–2016 increase relative to 1979–1995 is explained by only 273 unique extreme events affecting >5 stations and occurring in the months of February, March, June, July, September, and October. We use daily weather maps to classify the 273 extreme precipitation events by meteorological cause (tropical cyclones, fronts, and extratropical cyclones) and use reanalysis data to determine large‐scale changes in the atmosphere and ocean associated with increased extreme precipitation for each classification. Results show that tropical cyclones account for almost half (48%) of the post‐1996 extreme precipitation increase, while fronts and extratropical cyclones are responsible for 25% and 15% of the increase, respectively. The remaining 11% is from extreme events in the other 6 months of the year and extreme events that affected <5 stations. The increase in extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones after 1996 is associated with a shift to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation warm phase, higher total column water vapor, and potentially weakened steering winds. September and October tropical cyclones caused significantly more extreme precipitation during the current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation warm phase (1996–present) than during the last warm phase (1928–1962), despite the same number of northeast tropical cyclones in both periods. Increased extreme precipitation from fronts is associated with a wavier (higher amplitude) jet stream, which likely facilitates the development of more frequent fronts through the advection of cool northern air into the American Midwest.

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Changes in Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks under the Background of Arctic Amplification

Cited by 59 publications

References 98 publications

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

Mechanisms of Abrupt Extreme Precipitation Change Over the Northeastern United States

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