Changes in Drought Conditions in Poland over the Past 60 Years Evaluated by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index

Somorowska, Urszula

doi:10.1515/acgeo-2016-0110

Cited by 60 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…An extended period without precipitation led to the lowest values of the stages (and discharges) on record (typically records go back to the 1950s) at many rivers. The Vistula River reached the lowest stage since the eighteenth century, when records began (Somorowska 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990

Pińskwar

Choryński

Graczyk

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990

Pińskwar

Choryński

Graczyk

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…1 of Online Resource 1). For each crop, we have identified years with spatially averaged CWI values below 90% and, using available literature on historical crop damages and droughts in Poland and Europe (Farat et al 1998;Górski et al 2008;Kalbarczyk 2004;Kozyra et al 2012;Koźmiński and Michalska 1995;Somorowska 2016;Spinoni et al 2015;Zawadzki and Mierosławska 1993), we identified either deficit or excessive SM conditions as the main driver of low CWI. Calculated CWIs will be presented alongside the presentation of SWATbased SM validation in the Results section.…”

Section: Crop-weather Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extreme drought conditions in Poland in 2018 were also reported by the remote sensing products 2 and the state monitoring of agricultural drought 3 that announced 58% of communes with spring cereal yields being threatened by drought. Recent assessments of drought indices in Poland (Somorowska 2016), Czech Republic, Slovakia and northern Austria (Trnka et al 2016) revealed an increased intensity and spatial coverage of droughts in all these countries. Excessive soil moisture (together with cool weather and the scarcity of sunshine) contributed to huge yield decreases of all crops in 1980, and to a smaller extent in 1997 (Górski et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Piniewski

Marcinkowski

O’Keeffe

et al. 2020

Theor Appl Climatol

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Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical cropweather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon.

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“…To interpret the change in river flow, it is important to examine the results of change detection studies in precipitation (therein also intense precipitation and snow-related characteristics), where weaker, although apparent trends, were detected, e.g. in precipitation-based drought indices by Somorowska (2016). Pińskwar et al (2018a) analysed changes in observed daily precipitation records in Poland from 1951 to 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

2018

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The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small-and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions-low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly 'no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

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Changes in Drought Conditions in Poland over the Past 60 Years Evaluated by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index

Cited by 60 publications

References 21 publications

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

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