Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species’ Optimum Elevations

Crimmins, Shawn M.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Mynsberge, Alison R.

doi:10.1126/science.1199040

Cited by 492 publications

(506 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…They also provided a benchmark for documenting changes in the elevational ranges of species in California over the past century [11,13,14,23], during which time the mean annual temperature in California has increased by approximately 0.68C [24][25][26] (electronic supplementary material, figure S1). Precipitation changes were more spatially heterogeneous, with spatial covariation increasing across the northern part of the state and decreasing across the southern part [27,28]. Elevational ranges of species in California over this period have shifted heterogeneously, including species moving upslope, downslope or not at all [13,14,29].…”

Section: Nne Nearest Neighbour Elevation (M)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

et al. 2015

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Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.

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Section: Nne Nearest Neighbour Elevation (M)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

et al. 2015

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“…The extent and limits of the treeline ecotone are easily confounded by different factors such as the presence of herbivores (Speed et al 2012), forms of treeline (Harsch et al 2009), land-use dynamics (Gehrig-Fasel et al 2007), geomorphology (Leonelli et al 2011;Resler 2006), moisture (Crimmins et al 2011;Qiu 2015), as well as local temperature. Several recent studies document an upslope or poleward shift of species at the treeline and suggest that this is partly as a result of recent global warming (Bhatta and Vetaas 2016;e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, vascular plant species were found to be tracking their environmental niche by shifting downhill because of decreased water availability in California, although average temperature increased (Crimmins et al 2011). Climatic warming increases water stress by increasing evapotranspiration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land-use change under a warming climate facilitated upslope expansion of Himalayan silver fir (Abies spectabilis (D. Don) Spach)

Suwal

Shrestha²,

Guragain³

et al. 2016

Plant Ecol

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Global warming is triggering some species to shift towards the poles or higher elevations, but spatial translocation is also influenced by land-use regime or intensity. The Himalayan climate is getting warmer and land use has changed, reducing in intensity in some areas. We estimated the upper species limit (USL) and tree limit of Abies spectabilis (D. Don) Spach and assessed whether these have changed over recent years. We hypothesise an upslope shift in response to enhanced temperature and changes in land-use intensity. Our four transects were located in treeline ecotones of two protected areas in Nepal, namely Manaslu Conservation Area (3 transects) and Gaurishankar Conservation Area (1 transect). Transects (20 m wide) ran from the USL of A. spectabilis down towards the treeline and beyond to the forest line. Length of each transect varied depending on local conditions. Co-ordinates, elevation, height and age of each A. spectabilis individual along the transects were recorded. We noted an upward shift of both the USL and the tree limit. The rate of shift was ca. 20 m per decade for the USL and 12 m per decade for the tree limit in the area of reduced land-use intensity and in the area with no change in land use, 5 m per decade for the USL, but almost nil for tree limit. The seedling density was higher below the treeline than above. Reduced intensity of land use was the dominant factor in upslope shift of A. spectabilis at both the USL and the tree limit.

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“…Uncertainty remains as to which stands are most vulnerable to warmer climates. One study suggests that higher-elevation forests in the SW US will experience larger range contractions than lower-elevation stands [29], while other studies propose that lower-elevation forests are at highest risk in a changing climate [2,5,30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

Bagdon

Huang

2014

Forests

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Abstract:Researchers have observed climate-driven shifts of forest types to higher elevations in the Southwestern US and predict further migration coupled with large-scale mortality events proportional to increases in radiative forcing. Range contractions of forests are likely to impact the total carbon stored within a stand. This study examines the dynamics of Pinus ponderosa stands under three climate change scenarios in Northern Arizona using the Climate Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS) model to project changes in carbon pools. A sample of 90 stands were grouped according to three elevational ranges; low-(1951 to 2194 m), mid-(2194 to 2499 m), and high-(2499 to 2682 m.) elevation stands. Growth, mortality, and carbon stores were simulated in the Climate-FVS over a 100 year timespan. We further simulated three management scenarios for each elevational gradient and climate scenario. Management included (1) a no-management scenario, (2) an intensive-management scenario characterized by thinning from below to a residual basal area (BA) of 18 m 2 /ha in conjunction with a prescribed burn every 10 years, and (3) a moderate-management scenario characterized by a thin-from-below treatment to a residual BA of 28 m 2 /ha coupled with a prescribed burn every 20 years. Results indicate that any increase in aridity due to climate change will produce substantial mortality throughout the elevational range of ponderosa pine stands, with lower elevation stands projected to experience the most devastating effects. Management was only effective for the intensive-management scenario; stands receiving this treatment schedule maintained moderately consistent levels of basal area and demonstrated a higher level of resilience to climate change relative to the two other management scenarios. The results of this study indicate that management can improve OPEN ACCESSForests 2014, 5 621 resiliency to climate change, however, resource managers may need to employ more intensive thinning treatments than currently proposed to achieve the best results.

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Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species’ Optimum Elevations

Cited by 492 publications

References 25 publications

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

Land-use change under a warming climate facilitated upslope expansion of Himalayan silver fir (Abies spectabilis (D. Don) Spach)

Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

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