Changes in climate indices for Serbia according to the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2 scenarios

Abstract

Changes in 7 climate indices related to temperature or precipitation in Serbia were estimated for the reference period and for the future period 2071-2100, as derived from the results of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM. In order to verify the appropriateness of the EBU-POM to simulate regional climate in the future, changes in the indices of intensive events were studied on the basis of the model data and daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 17 meteorological stations in Serbia for the reference period. The results show an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2 and 4°C and a decrease in seasonal precipitation sums of about 13 and 6 mm for the A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. It is likely that the number of days with absolute maximum temperature > 30°C (tropical days) will increase, while the total number of days with absolute minimum temperature < 0°C (frost days) will decrease in the future. A shorter duration of the frost period and a longer duration of dry and vegetation periods over the Serbian region is expected. KEY WORDS: Climate indices · Regional climate model · A1B scenario · A2 scenario · Serbia Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 49: [73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86] 2011 The changes in climate extremes in the Mediterranean basin are seen in the increase in heavy precipitation and rise in extreme temperatures (Goubanova & Li 2007). Recently, Gao & Giorgi (2008) showed a widespread decrease in winter precipitation over most of the EM and warming during summer over the Balkans and western Turkey (5-6°) for future climate conditions (2071-2100) under the emission scenarios A2 and B2. Önol & Semazzi (2009), using the ICTP-RegCM3, investigated the role of global warming in modulating the future climate for the time frame 2071-2100 based on the A2 scenario over the EM. The major results were that, during summer, temperatures will increase by about 7°C over the Balkan countries (including Serbia), while changes for the rest of the region will be within the range of 3-4°C.To analyze events far from the mean climate range, but more likely to occur than outlying extremes, various precipitation and temperature indices have been introduced. They have been used to evaluate the present climate, starting with the work of Karl et al. (1996). Such work has been continued by, e.g., Frich et al. (2002) and Alexander et al. (2006). Klein Tank & Können (2003), Kostopoulou & Jones (2005), and Moberg et al. (2006) have focused on regional climate changes for the present climate. But climate indices can also be very helpful in indicating the consequences of various scenarios of climate change. Meehl et al. (2004), analyzing global simulations of the NCAR/Energy Parallel Climate Model for the climate of the 20th and 21st centuries found a general decrease in the number of frost days. Oikonomou et al. (2008) found longer dry spells, with reduced rainfall intensity over the EM for...

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