Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data

Abstract

Trends in indices based on daily temperature and precipitation are examined for two periods: 1948-2016 for all stations in Canada and 1900-2016 for stations in the south of Canada. These indices, a number of which reflect extreme events, are considered to be impact relevant. The results show changes consistent with warming, with larger trends associated with cold temperatures. The number of summer days (when daily maximum temperature >25°C) has increased at most locations south of 65°N, and the number of hot days (daily maximum temperature >30°C) and hot nights (daily minimum temperature >22°C) have increased at a few stations in the most southerly regions. Very warm temperatures in both summer and winter (represented by the 95th percentile of their daily maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively) have increased across the country, with stronger trends in winter. Warming is more pronounced for cold temperatures. The frost-free season has become longer with fewer frost days, consecutive frost days, and ice days. Very cold temperatures in both winter and summer (represented by the 5th percentile of their daily maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively) have increased substantially across the country, again with stronger trends in the winter. Changes in other temperature indices are consistent with warming. The growing season is now longer, and the number of growing degree-days has increased. The number of heating degree-days has decreased across the country, while the number of cooling degree-days has increased at many stations south of 55°N. The frequency of annual and spring freeze-thaw days shows an increase in the interior provinces and a decrease in the remainder of the country. Changes in precipitation indices are less spatially coherent. An increase in the number of days with rainfall and heavy rainfall is found at several locations in the south. A decrease in the number of days with snowfall and heavy snowfall is observed in the western provinces, while an increase is found in the north. There is no evidence of significant changes in the annual highest 1-day rainfall and 1-day snowfall. The maximum number of consecutive dry days has decreased, mainly in the south. RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous examinons les tendances d'indices fondés sur les températures et les précipitations quotidiennes pour deux périodes : de 1948 à 2016, pour toutes les stations au Canada, et de 1900 à 2016, pour les stations du sud du pays. Ces indices, dont certains représentent des événements extrêmes, sont considérés comme pertinents sur le plan des impacts. Les résultats montrent des changements en accord avec un réchauffement et des tendances prononcées associées à des températures froides. Le nombre de jours estivaux (lorsque la température quotidienne maximale > 25°C) a augmenté à la plupart des sites au sud de 65°N, et les nombres de jours chauds (température quotidienne maximale >30°C) et de nuits chaudes (température quotidienne minimale >22°C) ont augmenté à quelques stations, dans les régions les plus au ...

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