Challenges in the Control and Eradication of Malaria

Fong, I. W.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-4496-1_6

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 117 publications

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“…One of our most interesting findings was that we did not find evidence of a positive association between population density and infection numbers and deaths. This contradicts our expectations, which were based on theory and earlier findings in other diseases [ 19 , 47 ]. It may be that population density plays a role at lower spatial scales [ 48 ].…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

et al. 2020

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has expanded rapidly throughout the world. Thus, it is important to understand how global factors linked with the functioning of the Anthropocene are responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak. We tested hypotheses that the number of COVID-19 cases, number of deaths and growth rate of recorded infections: (1) are positively associated with population density as well as (2) proportion of the human population living in urban areas as a proxies of interpersonal contact rate, (3) age of the population in a given country as an indication of that population's susceptibility to COVID-19; (4) net migration rate and (5) number of tourists as proxies of infection pressure, and negatively associated with (5) gross domestic product which is a proxy of health care quality. Data at the country level were compiled from publicly available databases and analysed with gradient boosting regression trees after controlling for confounding factors (e.g. geographic location). We found a positive association between the number of COVID-19 cases in a given country and gross domestic product, number of tourists, and geographic longitude. The number of deaths was positively associated with gross domestic product, number of tourists in a country, and geographic longitude. The effects of gross domestic product and number of tourists were non-linear, with clear thresholds above which the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths increased rapidly. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was positively linked to the number of tourists and gross domestic product. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was negatively associated with the mean age of the population and geographic longitude. Growth was slower in less urbanised countries. This study demonstrates that the characteristics of the human population and high mobility, but not population density, may help explain the global spread of the virus. In addition, geography, possibly via climate, may play a role in the pandemic. The unexpected positive and strong association between gross domestic product and number of cases, deaths, and growth rate suggests that COVID-19 may be a new civilisation disease affecting rich economies.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

et al. 2020

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“…The sociotechnical barriers that exist in our health information technology infrastructure can benefit from a better understanding of cognitive switching from System 1 to System 2 [ 20 – 23 ]. For example, in October 2014, a patient with Ebola virus came to a hospital in Dallas, Texas with classical symptoms of viral fever.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite some early success in seminal CDSS interventions for ID, little progress has been made to assist decision-making in this area [ 18 , 19 ]. Understanding the complex decision process by ID experts may help in the design of advanced CDSS tools to help with tasks such early infection detection and treatment monitoring [ 20 – 23 ]. In addition, given the public health importance of ID, improvements in the understanding of cognitive strategies in ID decision- making have larger population-based implications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding complex clinical reasoning in infectious diseases for improving clinical decision support design

Islam

Weir

Jones

et al. 2015

BMC Med Inform Decis Mak

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BackgroundClinical experts’ cognitive mechanisms for managing complexity have implications for the design of future innovative healthcare systems. The purpose of the study is to examine the constituents of decision complexity and explore the cognitive strategies clinicians use to control and adapt to their information environment.MethodsWe used Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) methods to interview 10 Infectious Disease (ID) experts at the University of Utah and Salt Lake City Veterans Administration Medical Center. Participants were asked to recall a complex, critical and vivid antibiotic-prescribing incident using the Critical Decision Method (CDM), a type of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA). Using the four iterations of the Critical Decision Method, questions were posed to fully explore the incident, focusing in depth on the clinical components underlying the complexity. Probes were included to assess cognitive and decision strategies used by participants.ResultsThe following three themes emerged as the constituents of decision complexity experienced by the Infectious Diseases experts: 1) the overall clinical picture does not match the pattern, 2) a lack of comprehension of the situation and 3) dealing with social and emotional pressures such as fear and anxiety. All these factors contribute to decision complexity. These factors almost always occurred together, creating unexpected events and uncertainty in clinical reasoning. Five themes emerged in the analyses of how experts deal with the complexity. Expert clinicians frequently used 1) watchful waiting instead of over- prescribing antibiotics, engaged in 2) theory of mind to project and simulate other practitioners’ perspectives, reduced very complex cases into simple 3) heuristics, employed 4) anticipatory thinking to plan and re-plan events and consulted with peers to share knowledge, solicit opinions and 5) seek help on patient cases.ConclusionThe cognitive strategies to deal with decision complexity found in this study have important implications for design future decision support systems for the management of complex patients.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12911-015-0221-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…In clinical medicine, ID represents a challenging and complex domain. [15][16][17] The complexity of emerging diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), environmentally persistent organisms, and increasing antibiotic resistance contribute to the ID domain's complex information environment. 18 For example, understanding and dealing with pathogens with limited information can make clinicians apprehensive.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power of Heuristics to Improve Health Information Technology System Design

et al. 2022

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Background Clinical decision-making can be prone to error if health system design does not match expert clinicians' higher cognitive skills. There is a gap in understanding the need for the importance of heuristics in clinical decision-making. The heuristic approach can provide cognitive support in designing intuitive health information systems for complex cases. Objective We explored complex decision-making by infectious diseases (ID) clinicians focusing on fast and frugal heuristics. We hypothesized that ID clinicians use simple heuristics to understand complex cases using their experience. Methods The study utilized cognitive task analysis and heuristics-based decision modeling. We conducted cognitive interviews and provided clinicians with a fast-and-frugal tree algorithm to convert complex information into simple decision algorithms. We conducted a critical decision method–based analysis to generate if–then logic sentences from the transcript. We conducted a thematic analysis of heuristics and calculated the average time to complete and the number of crucial information in the decision nodes. Results A total of 27 if–then logic heuristics sentences were generated from analyzing the data. The average time to construct the fast-and-frugal trees was 1.65 ± 0.37 minutes, and the average number of crucial pieces of information clinicians focused on was 5.4 ± 3.1. Conclusion Clinicians use shortcut mental models to reduce complex cases into simple mental model algorithms. The innovative use of artificial intelligence could allow clinical decision support systems to focus on creative and intuitive interface design matching the higher cognitive skills of expert clinicians.

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Challenges in the Control and Eradication of Malaria

Cited by 3 publications

References 117 publications

The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

Understanding complex clinical reasoning in infectious diseases for improving clinical decision support design

Power of Heuristics to Improve Health Information Technology System Design

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