The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has expanded rapidly throughout the world. Thus, it is important to understand how global factors linked with the functioning of the Anthropocene are responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak. We tested hypotheses that the number of COVID-19 cases, number of deaths and growth rate of recorded infections: (1) are positively associated with population density as well as (2) proportion of the human population living in urban areas as a proxies of interpersonal contact rate, (3) age of the population in a given country as an indication of that population's susceptibility to COVID-19; (4) net migration rate and (5) number of tourists as proxies of infection pressure, and negatively associated with (5) gross domestic product which is a proxy of health care quality. Data at the country level were compiled from publicly available databases and analysed with gradient boosting regression trees after controlling for confounding factors (e.g. geographic location). We found a positive association between the number of COVID-19 cases in a given country and gross domestic product, number of tourists, and geographic longitude. The number of deaths was positively associated with gross domestic product, number of tourists in a country, and geographic longitude. The effects of gross domestic product and number of tourists were non-linear, with clear thresholds above which the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths increased rapidly. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was positively linked to the number of tourists and gross domestic product. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was negatively associated with the mean age of the population and geographic longitude. Growth was slower in less urbanised countries. This study demonstrates that the characteristics of the human population and high mobility, but not population density, may help explain the global spread of the virus. In addition, geography, possibly via climate, may play a role in the pandemic. The unexpected positive and strong association between gross domestic product and number of cases, deaths, and growth rate suggests that COVID-19 may be a new civilisation disease affecting rich economies.

Positive association between COVID-19 deaths and influenza vaccination rates in elderly people worldwide

“…The high correlation between the longitude of the country centroid and DPMI and CFR emphasize a significant increase in CP and CFR from eastern to western regions in the world (Table 5; Figs. 4 and 5), as confirmed by Leung, Bulterys & Bulterys (2020) and Skórka et al (2020). Longitude could act as a proxy for variables such as lifestyle, social behavior, genetics, geographically isolated and remote populations, which may also be associated with CP and CFR.…”

Demographic and public health characteristics explain large part of variability in COVID-19 mortality across countries

“…Some of co-temporary papers with similar design, confirmed importance of demographic factors. 9–18 Using slightly different set of predictors some studies showed an association of comorbidities more important than socioeconomic factors. 19 , 20 The question how effective particular non-pharmaceutical interventions are, is still unanswered.…”

Macrolevel association of COVID-19 with non-communicable disease risk factors in India

“…In USA, a study reported macrolevel association of COVID-19 burden and case-fatality with air pollution, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and urbanization [ 34 ]. An international macroecological study reported association of COVID-19 burden and mortality with national GDP, urbanization, population density, number of tourists in a country and geographic longitude [ 35 ]. Influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors in the COVID-19 case-fatality rate globally was examined among 10.5 million cases in 209 countries.…”