Centennial Heat Wave Projections Over Pakistan Using Ensemble NEX GDDP Data Set

Ali, Jahangir; Syed, Kamran H.; Gabriel, Hamza Farooq; Saeed, Fahad; Ahmad, Bashir; Bukhari, Syed Ahsan Ali

doi:10.1007/s41748-018-0064-8

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…There are several approaches that are commonly used to quantify heat related risks. Oftentimes, extremes in dry‐bulb temperatures ( T max ) are used as a measure of heat stress (Ali et al., 2018; Diffenbaugh & Ashfaq, 2010; Lelieveld et al., 2016; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al., 2017; Saeed et al., 2017). However, heat related impacts on humans cannot be fully manifested through the use of T max alone as perspirative cooling allows a human body to tolerate high levels of dry‐bulb temperatures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

Saeed

Schleußner

Ashfaq

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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South Asia (SA) is one of those hotspots where earliest exposure to deadly wet‐bulb temperatures (Tw >35°C) is projected in warmer future climates. Here we find that even today parts of SA experience the upper limits of labor productivity (Tw >32°C) or human survivability (Tw >35°C), indicating that previous estimates for future exposure to Tw‐based extremes may be conservative. Our results show that at 2°C global warming above pre‐industrial levels, the per person exposure approximately increases by 2.2 (2.7) folds for unsafe labor (lethal) threshold compared to the 2006–2015 reference period. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid about half that impact. The population growth under the middle‐of‐the‐road socioeconomic pathway could further increase these exposures by a factor of ∼2 by the mid‐century. These results indicate an imminent need for adaptation measures, while highlighting the importance of stringent Paris‐compatible mitigation actions for limiting future emergence of such conditions in SA.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

Saeed

Schleußner

Ashfaq

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In Pakistan due to the impact of Heat-Wave about 1,300 to 2,000 people were dead in June 2015 [20] the reason behind the heat wave is due to the fact that people are contributing in greenhouse gases, such as CO 2 and methane, causing the earth to get warmer day by day as these gases trap inside the atmosphere. This procedure, which increases average temperature, is known as "global warming" [10,21] and the changes occurred in the atmosphere by these warmer temperature is known as "Climate Change".…”

Section: Effect Of Heat-wave In Pakistanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Vehicular Emission in Pakistan and its Impact on Human Health and Environment of paper

2020

JECET

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Contribution of vehicles towards air pollution has estimated between 60-70% (approx.) due to which Pakistan is facing environmental changes like melting of glaciers in northern areas, earthquakes, flooding and lack of fresh water availability. Effect of vehicular emissions on human population due to carbon, sulfur and nitrogen compounds is known to be adverse; secondary emissions include Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other Green House Gases (GHGs) which contribute to global warming. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of vehicle emissions, through the IMR 2800P gas analyzer, on the environment and the health of the people of Pakistan. The authors investigated that the pollutants emitted by the vehicles (i.e. Carbon monoxide, Hydrocarbons, Nitrogen oxide) causes different health issues like headache, asthma, fatigue, eye irritation, etc. The study shows that the old vehicles were contributing more towards the vehicle emissions and the majority of them did not pass the Japanese emission test. The study recommended reducing the effect of pollutants through different procedures, including plantation of trees, proper maintenance of the vehicle free of cost and prohibition of old vehicles.

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“…On the regional scale, for example, the results in Dong et al [58] conclude that CMIP5 tends to overestimate the HWDI over NEC, NC, SWC and underestimate the HWDI over EC in comparison with CN05.1. So far, there is no direct evaluation for the NEX-GDDP for HWDI except over Pakistan [59]. However, the ability of NEX-GDDP for daily temperature, precipitation as well as precipitation extremes over China have been evaluated over China [60,61].…”

Section: Sustainability 2019 11 X For Peer Review 11 Of 22mentioning

confidence: 99%

Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Heatwaves exert negative socio-economic impacts and particularly have serious effects on public health. Based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) results of 10 downscaled high-resolution Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA-GDDP), the intensity (largest lasting time), frequency and total duration of heatwaves over China as well as population exposure in the 21st century and at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels are investigated by using the three indices, the Heat Wave Duration Index (HWDI), annual total frequency of heatwaves (N_HW) and annual total days of heatwaves (T_HW) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MME results illustrate that heatwaves are projected to become more frequent (0.40/decade and 1.26/decade for N_HW), longer-lasting (3.78 days/decade and 14.59 days/decade for T_HW) as well as more extreme (1.07 days/decade and 2.90 days/decade for HWDI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) over China. High latitude and high altitude regions, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, are projected to experience a larger increase of intensity, frequency and the total time of heatwaves compared with southern China (except Central China). The total population affected by heatwaves is projected to increase significantly and will reach 1.18 billion in later part of the 21st century, and there will be more and more people expected to suffer long heatwave time (T_HW) in the 21st century. Compared with a 2.0 °C global warming climate, holding the global warming below 1.5 °C can avoid 26.9% and 29.1% of the increase of HWDI, 34.7% and 39.64% for N_TW and 35.3%–40.10% of T_HW under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The half-degree less of warming will not only decrease the population exposure by 53–83 million but also avoid the threat caused by longer heatwave exposure under the two scenarios. Based on the comprehensive assessment of heatwave under the two RCP scenarios, this work would help to enhance the understanding of climate change and consequent risk in China and thus could provide useful information for making climate adaptation policies.

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Centennial Heat Wave Projections Over Pakistan Using Ensemble NEX GDDP Data Set

Cited by 25 publications

References 26 publications

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

Analysis of Vehicular Emission in Pakistan and its Impact on Human Health and Environment of paper

Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

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