Ceasefires and State Order-Making in Naga Northeast India

Waterman, Alex

doi:10.1080/13533312.2020.1821365

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Toft 2010; Clayton et al 2022b). Ceasefires can also serve state-building purposes, for both the state (Woods 2011; Sosnowski 2019) and non-state actors (Kolas 2011; Sosnowski 2020; Waterman 2020), and facilitate the development of illicit economics (Dukalskis 2015). In this case a ceasefire might limit and contain rather than stop violence altogether (Jarman 2004; Höglund 2005; Kolas 2011).…”

Section: What Are the Functions Of A Ceasefire?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda

Clayton

Nygård

Rustad

et al. 2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Ceasefires are arrangements through which conflict parties commit to stop fighting. They are a common part of intra-state conflict. Existing research on intra-state ceasefires is largely limited to case studies and guidance notes for the policy and practice community. What has to date been lacking is a complementing body of comparative quantitative analysis to identify broader ceasefire trends and test the wider applicability of theory. Recent advancements in ceasefire data offer new opportunities to broaden the research agenda on ceasefires. This special section sets out the current state of the art in ceasefire research and provides the intellectual foundations to advance a new sub-field of quantitative ceasefire research. We discuss the conceptual challenges facing the study of ceasefires, offer a brief overview of ceasefire research focusing on the functions, timing, and sustainability of arrangements, and discuss the collective contributions of the articles included within this special section, and the implications for research and practice.

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Section: What Are the Functions Of A Ceasefire?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda

Clayton

Nygård

Rustad

et al. 2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…We follow the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Database and define an armed conflict as: 'a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year'(Gleditsch et al, 2002). In this article we only focus on internal armed conflicts.2 In contrast, a burgeoning body of literature explores the drivers of ceasefire onset, and the impact that ceasefires have on other outcomes such as peace processes, crime, and state-building; see,Åkebo (2016);Waterman (2020);Bara, Clayton and Rustad (2021);Clayton et al (2020a)…”

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confidence: 99%

Do Ceasefires Work? A Bayesian autoregressive hidden Markov model to explore how ceasefires shape the dynamics of violence in civil war

Williams¹,

Hermansen²,

Nygård³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Despite a growing body of literature focusing on ceasefires, it is unclear if most ceasefires achieve their primary objective of stopping violence. Motivated by this question and the new availability of the ETH-PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefires Dataset, we develop a Bayesian hidden Markov modeling (HMM) framework for studying the dynamics of violence in civil wars. This ceasefires data set is the first systematic and globally comprehensive data on ceasefires, and our work is the first to analyze this new data and to explore the effect of ceasefires on conflict dynamics in a comprehensive and cross-country manner. We find that ceasefires do indeed seem to produce a significant decline in subsequent violence. However, the pre-ceasefire period (the period typically after a ceasefire agreement has been negotiated but before it is in effect) is shown to be prone to periods of intensified violence that are most likely a cause and effect of the subsequent ceasefire. This finding has significant implications for the research and practice community. Moreover, manifesting from the ubiquity of modern data repositories combined with a deficiency in meaningful labels, HMMbased semi-supervised data labeling strategies could pave the way for the next decade of conflict research progress.

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Party system change and internal security: evidence from India, 2005-2021

Ray

2022

Small Wars & Insurgencies

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Ceasefires and State Order-Making in Naga Northeast India

Abstract: including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. This is a repository copy of Ceasefires and State Order-Making in Naga Northeast India.

Cited by 8 publications

References 17 publications

Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda

Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda

Do Ceasefires Work? A Bayesian autoregressive hidden Markov model to explore how ceasefires shape the dynamics of violence in civil war

Party system change and internal security: evidence from India, 2005-2021

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