Causal Relationships Among Tourism, International Trade, Pollution, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Central Asian Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the cointegration and causality among environmental quality (CO2 emissions), international trade, economic growth, and tourism of five Central Asian Republic States (CARS-5), namely Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, for 1992–2018. To this end, we employed the Johansen cointegration approach, modified Wald tests, and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) approach. The empirical results showed that the variables were cointegrated in the long run, and the Granger causality test results revealed the existence of causality in the series. Furthermore, the empirical results validated both the export-led and the tourism-led growth hypotheses for Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. These findings suggest that the CARS-5 should develop appropriate and prudent public policies to stimulate sustainable economic development.

Analysing Tourist Experiences in Response to AI-Based Digital Technologies Adaption: A Logistic Regression Analysis in Case of Uzbekistan

“…The research into digital technologies based on arti cial intelligence has four main goals: According to some researchers, virtual reality (VR) technology can affect the traveler's pre-trip decision-making and satisfaction levels in a positive manner. Not only that augmented reality technology (AR) assists improve the duration of visitors' visit at the venue by offering enough area for interaction and background information (Azam et al, 2021;Leung et al, 2023;Mustafa Kamal, 2018). Next, arti cial intelligence assisted technology systems that make it possible to customize tourism experience are the main cause of a more e cient trip planning and a higher level of overall trip satisfaction.…”

Does Dometic Tourisim Drive the Infation Rate or the Inflation Restricts the Domestic Toursim? A Case Study of Uzbekistant Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model

“…At the same period, the country has experienced a myriad of changes in the in ation rate, which were caused by both uctuations from the internal and outer markets. While the focus of this research is to explore volatile link between growing domestic tourism and falling in ation rate in Uzbekistan (Azam et al, 2021), we will also pay attention to the accompanying effects on the Uzbek economy such as employment generation.…”

“…A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, which is the most common instrument in econometrics for analyzing dynamics relationship between many time series, is used for implementing this study. Leading the way, this model will be applied to study incentive relations among domestic tourism and in ation on both quantitative and quantitative aspects in Uzbekistan for stakeholder's bene t (Azam et al, 2021).…”