Aims
To determine whether early adolescent alcohol use contributes to adult alcohol use, misuse, and other adult substance-related and social outcomes.
Design
In a longitudinal study of twins assessed at target ages 11, 14, and 24, two techniques adjusted for confounding factors: a propensity score (PS) adjusting for the effects of measured background covariates, and cotwin control (CTC) adjusting for confounding by unmeasured (including genetic) factors shared within early alcohol exposure-discordant pairs.
Setting
The community-based Minnesota Twin Family Study.
Participants
1512 (760 female, 752 male) twins.
Measurements
Early adolescent alcohol exposures, adult substance-related and social outcomes, and background variables reflecting behavioral, familial, and environmental characteristics.
Findings
Background covariates unbalanced between those with and without early alcohol exposure were balanced through PS-based weighting, leaving several adult outcomes related to substance use or social functioning remaining significantly associated with early alcohol exposure.Likewise, the within-pair individual-level component of a CTC indicated that early alcohol-exposed twins had higher risk than their non-exposed cotwins for several, but not all, of the same adult outcomes. For example, early alcohol use was associated with an adult index of alcohol use in both PS-weighted (β = 0.57, p < 0.001) and CTC (β = 0.21, p = 0.031 ) analyses.
Conclusions
Early alcohol exposures predict adult alcohol problems and related outcomes, despite stringent adjustment for measured and non-measured sources of potential confounding using PS and CTC. Contrasting the methods indicated that exposure effect estimates from PS application were likely biased by unmeasured confounding factors.