Casualties of war and sunk costs: Implications for attitude change and persuasion

Schott, John Paul; Scherer, Laura D.; Lambert, Alan J.

doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2011.06.002

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…They find that the sacrifice frame strengthens hawks’ commitment, but weakens that of doves. In a similar study, Schott, Scherer & Lambert (2011) find that the framing effect of stating war casualties is moderated by the attainability of the military goal.…”

Section: Violence and The Role Of Refugees In Civil War Terminationmentioning

confidence: 82%

A persuasive peace: Syrian refugees’ attitudes towards compromise and civil war termination

Fabbe¹,

Hazlett

Sınmazdemir

2019

Journal of Peace Research

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Civilians who have fled violent conflict and settled in neighboring countries are integral to processes of civil war termination. Contingent on their attitudes, they can either back peaceful settlements or support warring groups and continued fighting. Attitudes toward peaceful settlement are expected to be especially obdurate for civilians who have been exposed to violence. In a survey of 1,120 Syrian refugees in Turkey conducted in 2016, we use experiments to examine attitudes towards two critical phases of conflict termination – a ceasefire and a peace agreement. We examine the rigidity/flexibility of refugees’ attitudes to see if subtle changes in how wartime losses are framed or in who endorses a peace process can shift willingness to compromise with the incumbent Assad regime. Our results show, first, that refugees are far more likely to agree to a ceasefire proposed by a civilian as opposed to one proposed by armed actors from either the Syrian government or the opposition. Second, simply describing the refugee community’s wartime experience as suffering rather than sacrifice substantially increases willingness to compromise with the regime to bring about peace. This effect remains strong among those who experienced greater violence. Together, these results show that even among a highly pro-opposition population that has experienced severe violence, willingness to settle and make peace are remarkably flexible and dependent upon these cues.

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Section: Violence and The Role Of Refugees In Civil War Terminationmentioning

confidence: 82%

A persuasive peace: Syrian refugees’ attitudes towards compromise and civil war termination

Fabbe¹,

Hazlett

Sınmazdemir

2019

Journal of Peace Research

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“…This may happen when some voters view military casualties as an investment. Such a perspective is theorized to encourage voters’ support for ongoing conflict and sustain the current course of action, in order to redeem casualties and not to let them “die in vain” (Boettcher and Cobb 2009; Koch 2011; Schott, Scherer, and Lambert 2011).…”

Section: War and Support For Leadersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many previous studies focus on support for war (e.g. Larson 1996; Gartner, Segura, and Wilkening 1997; Gartner and Segura 1998; Gartner 2008; Schott, Scherer and Lambert 2011; Althaus, Bramlett, and Gimpel 2012; Kriner and Shen 2012), but do not examine whether policy disapproval translates into assessment of leaders and into costly political behavior (i.e. voting).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interstate Conflict Can Reduce Support for Incumbents: Evidence from the Israeli Electorate and the Yom Kippur War

Getmansky

Weiss

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Does war affect support for incumbent leaders and parties? The literature is divided with studies reporting negative, positive, or null-effects. Many studies analyze the consequences of foreign intervention, and less is known about the political costs of wars fought close to home. Building on theories of retrospective voting, we theorize that wars inform voters about leader’s competence, and in turn affect mass attitudes and behaviors. Leveraging the unexpected onset of the 1973 Yom Kippur war which interrupted an ongoing Israeli public opinion poll, and voting records from four national elections linked with Israeli military fatality data, we demonstrate that despite the ultimate military victory, the war and its casualties reduced support for incumbent parties and leaders, and increased support for the opposition. By moving beyond foreign interventions, we provide strong evidence that wars over a country’s core territory can be politically costly for incumbent leaders and parties.

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“…Our results may identify a factor that de-biases sunk-cost decision-making: one's care towards others. Although the SCE is a robust effect that occurs in many areas like committed relationships, financial investments, and public support for war, other aspects relevant to a particular decision may be salient enough to influence decision-making above sunk costs (i.e., the harm/care principle; Guler, 2007;Rego, Arrantes & Magalhães, 2018;Schott, Scherer, & Lambert, In our vignettes, the sunk-cost and ethic of care aspects influence opposite decisions. Sunk costs influence continuation of the vignette, whereas the ethic of care influences discontinuation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Harm to others reduces the sunk-cost effect

et al. 2020

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The sunk-cost effect (SCE) is the tendency to continue investing in something that is not working out because of previous investments that cannot be recovered. In three experiments, we examine the SCE when continued investment violates the ethic of care by harming others. In Experiment 1, the SCE was smaller if the sunk-cost decision resulted in harmful consequences towards others (an interaction between sunk cost and the ethic of care). In Experiment 2, participants considered vignettes from their own or another person's perspective. We observed an interpersonal SCEpeople showed the SCE when taking the perspective of others. We did not replicate the interaction found in Experiment 1. In Experiment 3, we used statistically more powerful analyses -Bayesian sequential hypothesis testingto examine the interaction between sunk cost and the ethic of care. We found evidence in favor of the interaction; the SCE was smaller if the sunk-cost decision harmed others. We suggest that violating one's ethic of care de-biases decision-making by overshadowing sunk costs. These findings may help explain decision-making in real-world situations involving large investments.

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Casualties of war and sunk costs: Implications for attitude change and persuasion

Cited by 9 publications

References 29 publications

A persuasive peace: Syrian refugees’ attitudes towards compromise and civil war termination

A persuasive peace: Syrian refugees’ attitudes towards compromise and civil war termination

Interstate Conflict Can Reduce Support for Incumbents: Evidence from the Israeli Electorate and the Yom Kippur War

Harm to others reduces the sunk-cost effect

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