A persuasive peace: Syrian refugees’ attitudes towards compromise and civil war termination

Abstract

Civilians who have fled violent conflict and settled in neighboring countries are integral to processes of civil war termination. Contingent on their attitudes, they can either back peaceful settlements or support warring groups and continued fighting. Attitudes toward peaceful settlement are expected to be especially obdurate for civilians who have been exposed to violence. In a survey of 1,120 Syrian refugees in Turkey conducted in 2016, we use experiments to examine attitudes towards two critical phases of conflict termination – a ceasefire and a peace agreement. We examine the rigidity/flexibility of refugees’ attitudes to see if subtle changes in how wartime losses are framed or in who endorses a peace process can shift willingness to compromise with the incumbent Assad regime. Our results show, first, that refugees are far more likely to agree to a ceasefire proposed by a civilian as opposed to one proposed by armed actors from either the Syrian government or the opposition. Second, simply describing the refugee community’s wartime experience as suffering rather than sacrifice substantially increases willingness to compromise with the regime to bring about peace. This effect remains strong among those who experienced greater violence. Together, these results show that even among a highly pro-opposition population that has experienced severe violence, willingness to settle and make peace are remarkably flexible and dependent upon these cues.

The Displaced as ‘Ordinary Citizens’: Exploring Variation in the Political Attitudes of the Displaced from Donbas

“…A recent study based on original survey experiments with members of the Syrian refugee population in Turkey analysed the refugees' attitudes about the termination of conflict (Fabbe et al 2019). Here, refugee attitudes are not treated as fixed outcomes of their exposure to violence but are shown to be responsive to the framing of wartime experiences and the identity of the political actors proposing a peace agreement.…”

Hard-to-Survey Populations and Respondent-Driven Sampling: Expanding the Political Science Toolbox

“…With the country closed off by physical danger and authoritarian restrictions, refugees-who primarily reside in neighboring Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan-have become conduits for the study of Syria ( . In Turkey, scholars gauged attitudes toward conflict resolution by purposive sampling of neighborhoods with high concentrations of Syrians and random sampling at the household level (Fabbe, Hazlett, and Sinmazdemir 2019). In almost all cases, these studies' findings defy popular and scholarly expectations.…”

Refugees, forced migration, and conflict: Introduction to the special issue

“…The last set of articles in this special issue approaches forced migration through the lens of public opinion. Using an original survey experiment carried out with participants from the Syrian refugee population in Turkey, Fabbe, Hazlett & Sınmazdemir (2019) examine how refugees’ attitudes towards civil war termination are shaped. Unlike prior work that treats refugee attitudes as fixed outcomes of prior exposure to violence, the authors show that attitudes are indeed flexible.…”