Capabilities for Joint Analysis in the Department of Defense: Rethinking Support for Strategic Analysis

Davis, Paul K.

doi:10.7249/rr1469

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…34 This distaste for opaqueness underlay the DoD’s decision, in 2011, to discontinue emphasis on campaign modeling. 11…”

Section: Uncertainty Sensitive Computational Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…7,8,9 A definition given in a noteworthy report on long-term social planning is that deep uncertainty is the condition in which “analysts do not know or the parties to a decision cannot agree upon (1) the appropriate models to describe interactions among a system’s variables, (2) the probability distributions to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the models, and/or (3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes.” 10 These attributes are particularly important for higher level planning. 11…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty: National security examples

Davis

O’Mahony

2016

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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Representing causal social science knowledge in models is difficult: much of the best knowledge is qualitative and ambiguously conditional, unlike the knowledge in “physics models.” This paper describes a stream of RAND research that began with qualitative models providing a structured depiction of casual factors creating effects. That has subsequently been extended to an unusual kind of uncertainty sensitive computational modeling that enables exploratory reasoning and analysis. We illustrate the approach with applications to counterterrorism, detection of terrorists, and nuclear crises. We believe that the approach will complement other approaches that can reflect social science phenomena [see other papers in this special issue of JDMS] and that the approach has broad potential within and beyond the national security domain. We also believe that it has the potential to inform empirical work—encouraging a transition from the step-by-step empirical testing of simple discrete hypotheses to the testing and refinement of more comprehensive causal models.

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“…34 This distaste for opaqueness underlay the DoD’s decision, in 2011, to discontinue emphasis on campaign modeling. 11…”

Section: Uncertainty Sensitive Computational Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty: National security examples

Davis

O’Mahony

2016

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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“…Consequently, a decision support model, that traded-off fidelity for feasibility and relied on structured elicitation of subject matter experts (Wijnmalen & Curtis, 2013), was employed. Similar to the role of seminar wargaming in related strategic problems (Davis, 2016), this approach provided agility, creativity and transparency, breadth to cover the whole-of-force, and human phenomena, allowing the conclusions drawn from this experiment to aid strategic decision making.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Baselining the whole-of-force capability and capacity of the Australian Defence Force

2019

El Sawah, S. (Ed.) MODSIM2019, 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.

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This paper outlines an analytical approach taken to baseline the whole-of-force capability and capacity of the objective Australian Defence Force (ADF) (i.e. the projected force). This was achieved by capturing structured subjective assessments from subject matter experts (SMEs) drawn from across Defence. Approximately 200 SMEs participated in the assessments and were split into syndicates of 20-30 participants. Each syndicate completed a series of tasks to identify their subjective assessment of the ADF in eight Australian Capability Context Scenario's (ACCS). This was performed for both an individual ACCS and concurrent ACCS over four time epochs. The following tasks were performed by each syndicate for an individual ACCS: (i) Develop a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) specific to the ACCS; (ii) build a force model, comprising types and quantities of Defence Elements (e.g. platform such as F-35A Joint Strike Fighter or Infantry Fighting Battallion), that was constrained by the objective Australian Defence Force inventory; and (iii) perform a structured subjective assessment to determine the performance of the force model to realise the CONOPS. For concurrency, where a syndicate was assigned multiple (two to four) ACCS', the outputs from the individual ACCS were provided and their task was to rationalise the multiple force models to be constrained by a singular ADF inventory. Each syndicate performed a reassessment of the revised force models to realise each individual concept of operation. The outcome of these tasks enabled the identification of high and low performance of the ADF in a specific context (i.e. capability and capacity of Defence Elements specific to a scenario). This paper holds that a judgement-based form of decision support modelling (a form of multi-criteria decision making) provided appropriate structured analytical support to some of the most critical decisions to be made by the Department of Defence within the time-constraints imposed.

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“…CBP is aimed at providing the most cost and operational effective (COE) capabilities to meet wide range modern day challenges, offered flexibilities through various options to meet capability requirements [9]. With CBP, capability options and trade-offs as well as risk are considered earlier in planning stage i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Capability Based Planning (CBP) is a type of force planning involving complex process adapted from common strategic planning concept. CBP was introduced by the United States Department of Defense (US DoD) in 2001 to replace Cold War planning paradigm, known as Threat Based Planning [9]that following the aftermath of 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001. CBP and joint operations became part of the US-designed military transformation strategy that led many armed forces around the world scrambling to follow suit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proposed approach for modelling of military capabilities using based planning (CBP) framework

Hussein¹

2018

J. Fundam and Appl Sci.

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Capability Based Planning (CBP) is a type of force planning which involved complex process adapted from strategic planning concept. CBP is premised upon transformational efforts in terms of future force planning, which focuses on joint operations. While the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) have implemented CBP since 2008, the nature of its implementation is not well understood. In this study, the methodology used to model, forecast and analyse the MAF future capabilities is proposed to be based on CBP process.

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Capabilities for Joint Analysis in the Department of Defense: Rethinking Support for Strategic Analysis

Cited by 9 publications

References 5 publications

Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty: National security examples

Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty: National security examples

Baselining the whole-of-force capability and capacity of the Australian Defence Force

Proposed approach for modelling of military capabilities using based planning (CBP) framework

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