Baselining the whole-of-force capability and capacity of the Australian Defence Force

Abstract

This paper outlines an analytical approach taken to baseline the whole-of-force capability and capacity of the objective Australian Defence Force (ADF) (i.e. the projected force). This was achieved by capturing structured subjective assessments from subject matter experts (SMEs) drawn from across Defence. Approximately 200 SMEs participated in the assessments and were split into syndicates of 20-30 participants. Each syndicate completed a series of tasks to identify their subjective assessment of the ADF in eight Australian Capability Context Scenario's (ACCS). This was performed for both an individual ACCS and concurrent ACCS over four time epochs. The following tasks were performed by each syndicate for an individual ACCS: (i) Develop a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) specific to the ACCS; (ii) build a force model, comprising types and quantities of Defence Elements (e.g. platform such as F-35A Joint Strike Fighter or Infantry Fighting Battallion), that was constrained by the objective Australian Defence Force inventory; and (iii) perform a structured subjective assessment to determine the performance of the force model to realise the CONOPS. For concurrency, where a syndicate was assigned multiple (two to four) ACCS', the outputs from the individual ACCS were provided and their task was to rationalise the multiple force models to be constrained by a singular ADF inventory. Each syndicate performed a reassessment of the revised force models to realise each individual concept of operation. The outcome of these tasks enabled the identification of high and low performance of the ADF in a specific context (i.e. capability and capacity of Defence Elements specific to a scenario). This paper holds that a judgement-based form of decision support modelling (a form of multi-criteria decision making) provided appropriate structured analytical support to some of the most critical decisions to be made by the Department of Defence within the time-constraints imposed.