Cancer mortality in the older adults in China, 2005-2016: a joinpoint and age- period-cohort analysis

Abstract

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and mortality trends of cancer in the older adults in China from 2005 to 2016 and to provide strategies for the prevention and treatment of cancer. Methods Stratified analysis was conducted on the cancer mortality data of the older adults aged ≥ 60 years in China, which were selected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report and GLOBOCAN 2020 database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate mortality trends. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the effects of age. Results 1. Cancer mortality in the older adults in China showed a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2016 (APC=-1.23%, P < 0.001). 2. Cancer mortality in the older adults in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas from 2005 to 2016, but the urban-rural difference gradually narrowed as the urban-rural ratio was risen from 0.79 in 2005 to 1.01 in 2016 (t = 4.32, P < 0.01). 3. The cancer mortality in the older adults in older women and rural areas showed a decreasing trend (women: APC60-69=-1.08%, APC70-79=-1.85%, APC80-84=-0.83%; rural: APC60-69=-3.31%, APC70-79=-3.12%, APC80-84=-1.22%; all P < 0.05). Older adults born before 1935 had a higher risk of death. 4. Lung, stomach, liver, esophageal, and colorectal cancers were the five most dominant cancers in the older adults in China. Conclusion Cancer mortality in the older adults in China showed a decreasing trend between 2005 and 2016 but it was still higher than the world average. We recommend to focus on the early cancer detection in the older adult men and in rural areas.