Canada, the US and Eurozone: Implications for US Reforms

Welfens, Paul J. J.

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-21784-6_10

Cited by 2 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“… *Note: Here, “effective” means corrected for transatlantic differences in holiday time and health care expenditures: For Germany and France, annual nominal income has been multiplied by 1.1 to reflect a month of extra holiday in these countries, compared to the US; the official US figures have been reduced by 18% (expected US health care expenditures relative to GDP) and those of Germany and France by 11% (health care expenditures relative to GDP in France and Germany in 2017). The last column multiplies the 2015 annual effective income with life expectancy; this overestimates somewhat the EU advantage and the lead of Germany and France, respectively, since future income should in normal circumstances be discounted by some adequate discount factor Source: WELFENS ( 2019a ) Table 2 .3, p. 54; EIIW calculations using data available from the OECD Income Distribution Database …”

Section: Trade Policy Perspectives Under the Trump Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Source: WELFENS ( 2019a ) Table 2 .3, p. 54; EIIW calculations using data available from the OECD Income Distribution Database…”

Section: Trade Policy Perspectives Under the Trump Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reason why outward FDI stocks have to be taken into account is simple: If MNCs from country 1 (home country: US) have subsidiaries in country 2 (say, China) which export to country 1, then the overall profits of MNCs from country 1 are reduced by import protectionism in country 1. It can be shown that in the presence of cumulated outward FDI the “true optimum tariff rate” is smaller than 1/E’ (Welfens 2019a ; appendix , p. 237; and Welfens 2020a ). The adequate formula is.…”

Section: Trade Policy Perspectives Under the Trump Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the Trump Administration’s list of import tariffs vis-à-vis China has ignored any foreign direct investment effects although US multinational companies have relatively high investments in many sectors in China. Welfens ( 2019a , pp. 325–327) has pointed out this US policy inconsistency – with key aspects explained in a graphical approach.…”

Section: Appendix 1: the Optimum Tariff In The Presence Of Outward Fomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Euro Crisis of 2010–2014 – involving mainly Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and at some point Spain – brought a rather slow economic recovery in the Eurozone where Italy’s growth problems were exacerbated in the context of that crisis and even a populist coalition government which came to power in 2018 (the first Conte government of 2018/19 had two populist parties on board, the second Conte government of 2019 still had the left-wing MoVimento 5 Stelle Party in government while the right-wing Lega Party had left the coalition); Italy could be understood almost as a first political warning signal concerning US spillovers following the election of the populist President Trump in late 2016. Populism means nationalism and protectionism and therefore undermines regional integration and economic globalization (Welfens 2019a ). A populist president in the US is a shock to the world economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism

Welfens

2020

Int Econ Econ Policy

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Since 1991 there has been a reinforcement of the World Market Economy, not least since China and the, then new Russian Federation have joined the World Trade Organization and because of EU Eastern enlargement and ASEAN integration deepening, while the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations seemed to indicate stronger regional integration dynamics. With the Trump Administration, the situation has changed dramatically as President Trump is supportive of neither multilateralism in general nor of the EU, which is weakened through BREXIT, in particular. Trump's focus on the US merchandise trade balance deficit is ill-placed and import tariffs imposed on China seem to be excessive as the optimum tariff rate is miscalculated on the basis of the traditional formulawhile a new adequate formula would include the role of sectoral US outward FDI stocks. Asia, the EU and the US could define fighting the Corona World Recession as a global public good, but the United States is weakened in the corona pandemic crisis; the EU is facing serious problems in avoiding a Euro Crisis 2 problem and the €750 billion EU loan package could undermine the Eurozone's stability while being inadequate to minimize the risk of a Euro Crisis 2. At the same time, the prospects for EU cooperation are declining due to political disappointment concerning the national corona pandemic policy in some member countries. An effective anti-corona pandemic policy would mean to organize a consistent EU-ASEAN cooperation or a G20 cooperation with a later extension to UN Organizations, including the IMF, the World Bank and the WHO. Post-corona, global governance could change strongly because of the long-term political scarring effects of the pandemic shock which could undermine EU and Western stability. Networked international leadership in support of multilateralism is an innovativebut difficult-option for EU-ASEAN-Mercosur.

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Section: Trade Policy Perspectives Under the Trump Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Source: WELFENS ( 2019a ) Table 2 .3, p. 54; EIIW calculations using data available from the OECD Income Distribution Database…”

Section: Trade Policy Perspectives Under the Trump Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Trade Policy Perspectives Under the Trump Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendix 1: the Optimum Tariff In The Presence Of Outward Fomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism

Welfens

2020

Int Econ Econ Policy

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COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies

Bretschger

Grieg

Welfens

et al. 2020

Int Econ Econ Policy

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This paper presents empirical results on coronavirus infection and fatality rates from cross-country regressions for OECD economies and a sample of middle- and high-income countries. We include environmental, economic, medical, and policy variables in our analysis to explain the number of corona cases and deaths per million. We find a significant positive impact of local air pollution on infection rates in the whole sample and on fatality rates for OECD countries. Obesity rates have a positive effect on cases and deaths across the different estimation equations. The strategy of aiming to achieve herd immunity has a significant positive effect on infections as well as on death rates. The first affected countries have significantly higher mortality rates, revealing the lack of experience and medical capacity to deal with the pandemic in an initial phase. Postponing – and fighting - the pandemic could save lives in many countries and generate considerable economic benefits. Other medical and policy variables discussed in the public sphere do not show a significant impact in the regression analysis. Our results suggest that improving air quality and fighting obesity helps reduce the negative effects of a coronavirus pandemic significantly. Policy options for fighting a second epidemic wave should take into account the results from this study in order to optimize global epidemic policy.

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Canada, the US and Eurozone: Implications for US Reforms

Cited by 2 publications

References 7 publications

Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism

Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism

COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies

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