Canada/China free trade agreement: A public opinion appraisal

Landriault, Mathieu; Minard, Paul

doi:10.1080/11926422.2018.1427124

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Instead of protectionist attitudes spreading across borders, individuals may be more accepting of trade deals involving less-traditional trade partners because of protectionism abroad. In the context of NAFTA renegotiations, Landriault and Minard (2018) argued that "[I]f American protectionist sentiments materialize in a remodeled NAFTA, it is likely that Canadians will support closer ties with China." This article extends their discussion by proposing relative gains and protectionist threat as two causal mechanisms linking NAFTA renegotiations and support for a Canada-China FTA.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Explaining the linkage between NAFTA renegotiations and support for Canada-China FTA Since President Trump took office in 2016, scholars, the media, and policymakers in Canada have suggested that there may be a causal link, not merely correlation, between NAFTA renegotiations spurred by American protectionist sentiment and a recent increase in favorability toward the Canada-China FTA. Landriault and Minard (2018) note this point succinctly: "Support for a Canada/China FTA seems to be driven by fears that the United States will radically alter the terms of NAFTA by fundamentally reengineering the agreement, to the detriment of Canada." However, without rigorous empirical testing, these interpretations remain suggestive at best.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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NAFTA renegotiations and support for Canada-China FTA

Tuxhorn

2019

Canadian Foreign Policy Journal

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Do renegotiations of existing free trade agreements (FTAs) increase mass support for other FTAs, and if so, how? The media and scholars have suggested that the recent uptick in support for a Canada-China FTA can be attributed in part to NAFTA renegotiations, based on trends in public opinion polls. In this article, I present a formal test of this causal claim. I identify two interrelated causal mechanisms (distribution of benefits from cooperation and market threat) linking NAFTA renegotiations as a causal variable to explain support for a Canada-China FTA. I evaluate these causal mechanisms using new data from a survey experiment carried out during NAFTA renegotiations. The results provide support for both causal mechanisms and are consistent with existing notions about why Canadians have recently increased their support for a trade deal with China. Policy implications are discussed following the analysis. RÉSUMÉ Les renégociations des accords de libre-échange (ALE) existants augmentent-elles le soutien massif à d'autres ALE, et si oui, comment ? En se basant sur les tendances des sondages d'opinions, les médias et les universitaires ont suggéré que le récent renforcement du soutien à un ALE entre le Canada et la Chine peut être associé en partie aux renégociations de l'ALENA. Dans cet article, je présente un test formel de cette revendication causale. J'identifie deux mécanismes de causalité interdépendants (distribution des bénéfices de la coopération et menace des marchés) reliant les renégociations de l'ALENA, comme une variable causale, pour expliquer le soutien à un ALE entre le Canada et la Chine. J'évalue ces mécanismes de causalité en m'inspirant de nouvelles données issues d'une expérience d'enquête conduite lors des renégociations de l'ALENA. Les résultats viennent étayer l'intérêt pour les deux mécanismes de causalité et sont conformes aux notions existantes des raisons pour lesquelles les Canadiens ont récemment solidifié leur soutien à un accord commercial avec la Chine. Les implications politiques sont traitées à la suite de cette analyse.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NAFTA renegotiations and support for Canada-China FTA

Tuxhorn

2019

Canadian Foreign Policy Journal

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“… 2 Most previous research on trade attitudes is centered on advanced industrialized democracies (see Kuo and Naoi 2015 for a review of this literature). One subset of this literature examines public opinion towards trade with China (Jin et al 2022 ; Landriault and Minard 2018 ; Yeung and Quek 2022 ), and another subset examines how rising trade with China influences voting behavior (Autor et al, 2020 ; Colantone and Stanig 2018 ). A small number of works focus on Chinese public opinion on issues closely related to trade: Lu and Tian ( 2008 ) study attitudes towards “economic internationalism” (of which trade is one component); Nguyen et al ( 2020 ) explore Chinese attitudes towards trade agreements; and Shi and Zhu ( 2019 ) examine public support for China’s response to the trade war with the US.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war

Steinberg

Tan

2022

Rev Int Organ

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America’s recent turn towards protectionism has raised concerns over the future viability of the liberal international trading system. This study examines how and why public attitudes towards international trade change when one’s country is targeted by protectionist measures from abroad. To address this question, we fielded three original survey experiments in the country most affected by US protectionism: China. First, we find consistent evidence that US protectionism reduces support for trade among Chinese citizens. We replicate this finding in parallel experiments on technology cooperation, and provide further external validation with a survey experiment in Argentina. Second, we show that responses to US protectionism reflect both a “direct reciprocity” logic, whereby citizens want to retaliate against the US specifically, as well as a “generalized reciprocity” logic that reduces support for trade on a broader, systemic, basis. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11558-022-09468-y.

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