NAFTA renegotiations and support for Canada-China FTA

Abstract

Do renegotiations of existing free trade agreements (FTAs) increase mass support for other FTAs, and if so, how? The media and scholars have suggested that the recent uptick in support for a Canada-China FTA can be attributed in part to NAFTA renegotiations, based on trends in public opinion polls. In this article, I present a formal test of this causal claim. I identify two interrelated causal mechanisms (distribution of benefits from cooperation and market threat) linking NAFTA renegotiations as a causal variable to explain support for a Canada-China FTA. I evaluate these causal mechanisms using new data from a survey experiment carried out during NAFTA renegotiations. The results provide support for both causal mechanisms and are consistent with existing notions about why Canadians have recently increased their support for a trade deal with China. Policy implications are discussed following the analysis. RÉSUMÉ Les renégociations des accords de libre-échange (ALE) existants augmentent-elles le soutien massif à d'autres ALE, et si oui, comment ? En se basant sur les tendances des sondages d'opinions, les médias et les universitaires ont suggéré que le récent renforcement du soutien à un ALE entre le Canada et la Chine peut être associé en partie aux renégociations de l'ALENA. Dans cet article, je présente un test formel de cette revendication causale. J'identifie deux mécanismes de causalité interdépendants (distribution des bénéfices de la coopération et menace des marchés) reliant les renégociations de l'ALENA, comme une variable causale, pour expliquer le soutien à un ALE entre le Canada et la Chine. J'évalue ces mécanismes de causalité en m'inspirant de nouvelles données issues d'une expérience d'enquête conduite lors des renégociations de l'ALENA. Les résultats viennent étayer l'intérêt pour les deux mécanismes de causalité et sont conformes aux notions existantes des raisons pour lesquelles les Canadiens ont récemment solidifié leur soutien à un accord commercial avec la Chine. Les implications politiques sont traitées à la suite de cette analyse.

The structure of foreign policy attitudes among middle power publics: a transpacific replication

“…These two states have more limited material and economic power, but have played leadership roles on specific international issues such as arms control and multilateral trade, and as mediators of disputes within the western alliance (Cooper, Higgott, and Nossal 1993). Existing research on Canadian and Australian public opinion tends to focus on specific policy issues such as defence spending and use of force abroad (Fitzsimmons, Craigie, and Bodet 2014;Miller 2014;Chubb and McAllister 2019), relations with the United States (Gravelle 2014;Gravelle 2018;Miller 2015), and trade agreements (Bennett 2004;Tuxhorn 2019;Tuxhorn 2020;Miller and Taylor 2017) instead of examining how broad foreign policy postures structure specific foreign policy attitudes (Hurwitz and Peffley 1987;Peffley and Hurwitz 1993). This prompts the question -do middle power publics conceptualise broad foreign policy outlooks in the same ways as superpower and great power publics despite their different country contexts?…”