Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Ou, Yang; Iyer, Gokul; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Fawcett, Allen A.; Hultman, Nathan; McFarland, James; Binsted, Matthew; Cui, Ryna; Fyson, Claire; Geiges, Andreas; Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sofia; Gidden, Matthew; Höhne, Niklas; Jeffery, M. Louise; Kuramochi, Takeshi; Lewis, Jared; Meinshausen, Malte; Nicholls, Zebedee; Patel, Pralit; Ragnauth, Shaun; Rogelj, Joeri; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Yu, Sha; McJeon, Haewon

doi:10.1126/science.abl8976

Cited by 99 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…With climate change a modern reality, the US can expect warmer days overall and more frequent extreme heat events 24 . A recent analysis of the proposed resolutions at the 2021 United Climate Change Conference indicated a likely increase in mean global temperature to below 2 °C by 2100 with adherence to these resolutions 25 , an outcome just below the RCP 4.5 pathway represented in this study. As our analysis shows, under even a relatively conservative projection of climate change we can expect a higher incidence and cost of symptomatic kidney stones, particularly in the near future before any compensatory adaptive efforts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

Kaufman

Vicedo-Cabrera

Tam

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997–2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered—one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085–89 (vs. 2010–2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

Kaufman

Vicedo-Cabrera

Tam

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…Nonetheless, we do observe overall increasing ambition in climate mitigation (Ou et al, 2021), and there are countries that have phased out coal or have pledged to phase out coal before 2030. The Netherlands, which is a member of the PPCA, has committed to retiring three large coal-powered plants by 2029 (total capacity: 2.4 GW) that went online in 2015 (i.e., after only 14 years of operation).…”

Section: Prospects Of Coal Phaseout and The Role Of State Capacitymentioning

confidence: 78%

Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Brutschin

Schenuit

Ruijven

et al. 2022

PaG

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To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows that countries with aging power plants and decreasing coal consumption are more inclined to phase out coal, but little is known about where, why, and how coal power plants are being prematurely retired. In the context of the hybrid Paris Agreement, attention is increasingly shifting to domestic mitigation capacities and, alongside this—given the vested interests involved in different sectors—to state capacity to implement the transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization. In this article, we aim to study those capacities in the context of coal phaseout. We use a recent and comprehensive global dataset on coal power plants and employ a mixed-methods research design to (a) identify general emerging patterns with respect to premature coal fleet retirement, and (b) derive stylized types of political strategies to prematurely retire coal power plants. We find state capacity to be a robust predictor of general and premature coal retirement, and we identify three main strategies that countries have used to date to prematurely retire coal: (a) rein-in using top-down regulatory enforcement of environmental, climate, or other regulations that affect the operating licenses of coal plants; (b) buy-out or provision of compensation to companies and regions to appease vested interests; and (c) crowd out where accelerating market and price dynamics in the power sector crowd out coal. We propose that future research should explore more systematically the kinds of strategy that might be most promising in the regions and countries needing to rapidly phase out coal, taking into account their political structures, and also the implications that such strategies might have for global mitigation efforts.

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“…Although NDCs and long-term national pledges are currently insufficient to keep warming below 2 • C, let alone 1.5 • C [50][51][52], the time horizons used for emission metrics should nevertheless be consistent with that central goal of the Paris Agreement. We therefore support the use of the 20 year time horizon over the 100 year version, when binary choices between these two must be made, due to the better alignment of the former with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global temperature goals should determine the time horizons for greenhouse gas emission metrics

Abernethy

Jackson

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Emission metrics, a crucial tool in setting effective exchange rates between greenhouse gases, currently require an arbitrary choice of time horizon. Here, we propose a novel framework to calculate the time horizon that aligns with scenarios achieving a specific temperature goal. We analyze the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C Scenario Database to find that time horizons aligning with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming goals of the Paris Agreement are 24 [90% prediction interval: 7, 41] and 58 [90% PI: 41, 74] years, respectively. We then use these time horizons to quantify time-dependent emission metrics for methane. We find that the Global Warming Potential (GWP) values that align with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals are GWP1.5 °C = 75 [90% PI: 54, 107] and GWP2 °C = 42 [90% PI: 35, 54]. For the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) they are GTP1.5 °C = 41 [90% PI: 16, 102] and GTP2 °C = 9 [90% PI: 7, 16]. The most commonly used time horizon, 100 years, underestimates methane’s GWP and GTP by 34% and 38%, respectively, relative to the values we calculate that align with the 2 °C goal and by 63% and 87%, respectively, relative to the 1.5 °C goal. To best align emission metrics with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal, we recommend a 24 year time horizon, using 2045 as the endpoint time, with its associated GWP1.5 °C = 75 and GTP1.5 °C = 41.

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Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Abstract: Increased ambition and implementation are essential

Cited by 99 publications

References 4 publications

The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Global temperature goals should determine the time horizons for greenhouse gas emission metrics

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