Can the stochastic equilibrium job search models fit transition economies?

Abstract

The aim of this study is to apply the stochastic job search framework to the analysis of three transition economies (Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic). Two versions of equilibrium unemployment models have been developed resembling Mortensen and Pissarides' models, namely the dynamic and stochastic models. The dynamic model's properties were briefl y examined by evaluating the Jacobian matrix and plotting the phase plane of the economy. In the primary analysis of the stochastic model, job destruction decisions are endogenous as a response to random productivity changes. A martingale, i.e. a discrete-space version of the geometric Brownian motion with the drift and volatility parameter, was used to enable fl uctuation of endogenous variables and to perform numerical simulations. The results are promising, although ambiguous in some points, e.g. the main model-generated time-series are close to the empirical time-series, including reasonable fl uctuations, correlation signs, and autocorrelations. However, the model was unable to capture some subtle differences in productivity and job destruction rate series across the countries, which is its main limitation.

Ewolucja i ewaluacja polityki rynku pracy w Polsce

“…Kompleksowe badania tego typu dla polskiej polityki rynku pracy można policzyć na palcach jednej ręki (Woźniak 2015b). Ewaluacje programów dla bezrobotnych, prowadzone przez publiczne służby zatrudnienia w Polsce, uznać należy za wybiórcze i przestarzałe (Kryńska 2009, Maksim, Wiśniewski 2012, Woźniak 2015a), gdyż mierzą one tylko efekty brutto programów rynku pracy. Tego typu szacunki opierają się na porównaniu liczby uczestników programu z liczbą osób podejmujących zatrudnienie po zakończeniu działań aktywizacyjnych.…”

Job Placement Agencies in an Artificial Labor Market

“…There are also some problematic parameters whose exact value is unknown (e.g. shock frequency estimates provide different results, as shown in Wozniak 2015). In these cases, the parameters will be calibrated according to the developed calibration criteria and statistical methods.…”