Can Survey Measures Predict Subsequent Key Performance Indicators of Maritime Safety? Confirmatory and Exploratory Analyses of the Association between Self - report and Objective Indices

Abstract

We need reliable knowledge about what causes and prevents accidents in order to manage safety. Such associations are often investigated with self-report measures of psychological factors. However, few studies in the maritime industry have investigated the extent to which self-report measures predict objectively registered accidents. The current pre-registered study used structural equation modelling to test whether self-reported individual safety-related factors predicted objective safety outcomes in the following year. The study was conducted among crew on chemical tanker vessels operating in Arctic and Baltic waters. The pre-registered model and the expected associations between self-reported safety factors and safety outcomes were not supported. However, an exploratory model based on the pre-registered hypotheses supported an association between self-reported safe behaviour and the overall number of safety outcomes. While much safety research builds on the assumption that self-reported behaviour, attitude or cognitions are causally related to actual accidents, the current study shows that such a relationship can be difficult to confirm. We recommend more caution in assuming a causal relationship between self-reported psychological factors and safety outcomes until a causal relationship can be established.