Can long‐lived species keep pace with climate change? Evidence of local persistence potential in a widespread conifer

Abstract

Aim: Climate change poses significant challenges for tree species, which are slow to adapt and migrate. Insight into genetic and phenotypic variation under current landscape conditions can be used to gauge persistence potential to future conditions and determine conservation priorities, but landscape effects have been minimally tested in trees. Here, we use Pinus contorta, one of the most widely distributed conifers in North America, to evaluate the influence of landscape heterogeneity on genetic structure as well as the magnitude of local adaptation versus phenotypic plasticity in a widespread tree species. Location: Western North America. Methods: We paired landscape genetics with fully reciprocal in situ common gardens to evaluate landscape influence on neutral and adaptive variation across all subspecies of P. contorta. Results: Landscape barriers alone play a minor role in limiting gene flow, creating marginal geographically-based structure. Local climate determines population performance, with survival highest at home but growth greatest in mild climates (e.g., warm, wet). Survival of two of the three populations tested was consistent with patterns of local adaptation documented for P. contorta, while growth was indicative of plasticity for populations grown under novel conditions and suggesting that some populations are not currently occupying their climatic optimum. Main Conclusions: Our findings provide insight into the role of the landscape in shaping population genetic structure in a widespread tree species as well as the potential response of local populations to novel conditions, knowledge critical to understanding how widely distributed species may respond to climate change. Geographically based genetic structure and reduced survival under water-limited conditions may make some populations of widespread tree species more vulnerable to local maladaptation and extirpation. However, genetically diverse and phenotypically plastic populations of widespread trees, such as many of the P. contorta populations sampled and tested here, likely possess high persistence potential. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | 297 BISBING et al.

Environmental variables drive plant species composition and distribution in the moist temperate forests of Northwestern Himalaya, Pakistan

“…These results suggest that the richness and turnover patterns we observed were driven primarily by rare species, which comprise most of the local species pools at these forest communities [113]. These findings are consistent with the idea that less abundant species are more sensitive to climate variability than longer lived and more abundant species [114]. The high level of turnover is common and is an important mechanism by which a large regional species pool buffers site level diversity from interannual variation in climate [115].…”

Rules of Plant Species Ranges: Applications for Conservation Strategies

“…Engage relevant stakeholders in the discussion. Lyons et al, 2005;Slatyer et al, 2013;Baniaga et al, 2020;Grant and Kalisz, 2020;Leão et al, 2020;Sheth et al, 2020;Tanentzap et al, 2019;Bisbing et al, 2021;Vázquez-García et al, 2021 For each rule, the article section discussing that rule is given in parentheses.…”

“…Rare species are also important for conservation and evolutionary study for a variety of reasons (Stebbins, 1979) and should be assumed to be of high value, including for ecosystem function and services (Lyons et al, 2005). Nevertheless, larger-ranged species are no less important as conservation targets and can be vulnerable from falling through the cracks of political boundaries (Bisbing et al, 2021;Vázquez-García et al, 2021). For such species, we recommend greater focus on connectivity, dispersal habitat corridors, and multistakeholder and intergovernmental conservation plans.…”

The relevance of pedigrees in the conservation genomics era.

“…For example, a recent study in hihi (Notiomystis cincta ) used pedigree-based heritability to reveal low evolutionary potential in this threatened bird (de Villemereuil et al, 2019a). In addition to heritability, known family groups or distinct populations have also been essential to understanding GxE interactions, especially in plant species (Bisbing et al, 2020;Yoko, Volk, Dochtermann, & Hamilton, 2020). Empirical estimates of relatedness can be used instead of pedigrees, and may overcome pedigree pitfalls while providing realised estimates of genome-sharing (Hill & Weir, 2011;Hill & Weir 2012;Speed & Balding, 2015).…”