Can experts really assess future technology success? A neural network and Bayesian analysis of early stage technology proposals

The Impact of Presentation Form, Entrepreneurial Passion, and Perceived Preparedness on Obtaining Grant Funding

“…These funding entities oftentimes use a sequential process of decision making. The process typically begins with a fairly quick screening, or “down-select” process, in which a number of written business plans, proposals, or applications are formally reviewed and sorted (e.g., Ajamian & Koen, 2002; Galbraith, De Noble, Ehrlich, & Kline, 2007; Linton, Walsh, & Morabito, 2002; Ozer, 1999; Shepard, Zacharakis, & Baron, 2003). Although this initial screening process provides useful information (Galbraith, De Noble, & Ehrlich, 2009, 2012; Payne & Macarty, 2002), funders often require another screening phase in which a select group of the original applicants are allowed to personally present to a panel of decision makers who then vote on the merits of the proposal.…”

The dark side of innovation: Exploring obsolescence and supply chain evolution for sustainment-dominated systems

“…Furthermore, logistic regression provides a conditional probability which is much more useful for predicting possible future obsolescence than trying to categorize whether a component is currently obsolete (Cohen, Cohen, West., & Aiken, 2003). Recent research demonstrated that logistic regression proves as effective in the context of predicting future technology success as other methods such as expert opinion, neural networks, and Bayesian Data Reduction Algorithm (Galbraith, DeNoble, Ehrlich, & Kline, 2007).…”

Technologijų komercinio potencialo vertinimas

“…A. D. Rahal (2005) tai įvardija kaip technologijų vertinimą ir šį procesą apibrėžia kaip perspektyvų vertinimą, planuojant technologijas licencijuoti ar kitaip komercializuoti. Anot C. S. Galbraith et al (2007), tai būsimos technologijos sėkmės vertinimas -bandymas užfiksuoti svarbius veiksnius, kurie teigiamai koreliuoja su sėkmingomis produkto inovacijomis. Anot J. Cho, J. , komercializavimo galimybių vertinimas -naujų technologinių produktų komercializavimo veiksnių identifikavimas ir prioritetų suteikimas.…”