Calibration of Expert Judgments Applied to Uncertainty Assessment

Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles B.; Chytka, Trina; Conway, Bruce A.

doi:10.1080/10429247.2005.11415285

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Moreover, when group members are able to report changes in their certainty for each piece of information (i.e., when communication is one-dimensional), the equilibrium value either remains constant or increases with respect to its initial value. This confirms previous research which showed that uncertainty increases during group discussions (Oskamp, 1982) and explains some cases of over-and underconfidence (Giardini, Coricelli, Joffily, & Sirigu, 2008;Punchochar & Fox, 2004;Slevin, Boone, Russo, & Allen, 1998;Unal, Keating, Chytka, & Conway, 2005) as measurements of certainty before the equilibrium value has been reached.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Bifurcation in the evolution of certainty in a small decision‐making group by consensus

Gheondea-Eladi

Gheondea

2021

Brit J Math & Statis

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In a previous paper, the evolution of certainty measured during a consensus-based smallgroup decision process was shown to oscillate to an equilibrium value for about twothirds of the participants in the experiment. Starting from the observation that experimental participants are split into two groups, those for whom the evolution of certainty oscillates and those for whom it does not, in this paper we perform an analysis of this bifurcation with a more accurate model and answer two main questions: what is the meaning of this bifurcation, and is this bifurcation amenable to the approximation method or numerical procedure? Firstly, we have to refine the mathematical model of the evolution of certainty to a function explicitly represented in terms of the model parameters and to verify its robustness to the variation of parameters, both analytically and by computer simulation. Then, using the previous group decision experimental data, and the model proposed in this paper, we run the curve-fitting software on the experimental data. We also review a series of interpretations of the bifurcated behaviour. We obtain a refined mathematical model and show that the empirical results are not skewed by the initial conditions, when the proposed model is used. Thus, we reveal the analytical and empirical existence of the observed bifurcation. We then propose that sensitivity to the absolute value of certainty and to its rate of change are considered as potential interpretations of this split in behaviour, along with certainty/uncertainty orientation, uncertainty interpretation, and uncertainty/certainty-related intuition and affect.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Bifurcation in the evolution of certainty in a small decision‐making group by consensus

Gheondea-Eladi

Gheondea

2021

Brit J Math & Statis

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“…They also have global expertise in asset tracking, outside of the naval and sea-base application areas. Unal, Keating, Chytka, and Conway (2005) recommend such varied expertise in order to reduce bias in SME input. Development of the value hierarchy began with documentation that has either been created or approved by senior decision makers within the U.S. Navy and U.S. Government in order to identify potential measures (e.g., Clark, 2002;Congressional Budget Office, 2007 These potential measures were reviewed with our SMEs, who refined the list and created definitions for every measure.…”

Section: Model For Asset Tracking Technologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Value Model for Asset Tracking Technology to Support Naval Sea-Based Resupply

Scala

Pazour

2016

Engineering Management Journal

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“…The uncertain character of the conceptual design phase of aerospace vehicles has encouraged researchers to seek expert opinions on upcoming innovations. An extensive research and development of SEJE techniques was conducted at NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) to estimate parameters of weight, sizing and operations support for a launch vehicle [37]. In particular, probabilistic values were elicited by creating appropriate expert calibration [38] and aggregation [39] techniques in combination with a specially designed questionnaire [13].…”

Section: Seje Applications In the Aerospace Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

2023

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Disruptive technologies and novel aircraft generations represent a potential approach to address the ambitious emission reduction goals in aviation. However, the introduction of innovative concepts is a time-consuming process, which might not necessarily yield an optimal design for a given flight mission and within the defined time frame. In order to address the need for a structured and more exhaustive search for novel concept generations, the Advanced Morphological Approach (AMA) and its further enhancement was introduced earlier. It implies the decomposition of design problems into functional attributes and appropriate technological alternatives. Subsequently, these are evaluated and combined into solutions, which are then projected onto a solution space. The current paper focuses on the technology evaluation step by deriving and integrating structured expert judgment elicitation (SEJE) techniques into conceptual aircraft design with the AMA. For this purpose, the first aim of the work is to justify the developed method by giving an overview and discussing the most prominent SEJE methods and their applications in aerospace. Then, the derived SEJE concept is described and applied in the form of an expert workshop on the use case of wing morphing architecture. As a result, a solution space of wing morphing architecture configurations is generated and analyzed. The workshop conduction and the expert feedback serve as valuable findings for both the further AMA enhancement and similar research.

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Calibration of Expert Judgments Applied to Uncertainty Assessment

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

Bifurcation in the evolution of certainty in a small decision‐making group by consensus

Bifurcation in the evolution of certainty in a small decision‐making group by consensus

A Value Model for Asset Tracking Technology to Support Naval Sea-Based Resupply

Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

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