Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

Todorov, Vladislav T.; Rakov, Dmitry; Bardenhagen, Andreas

doi:10.3390/aerospace10030287

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The proposed approach decomposes the system into functional attributes, each of which can be realized by corresponding sets of options that make up a morphological matrix. The options are further obtained by qualitative evaluation of the options by experts and a number of sequential operations are performed [10].…”

Section: Morphological Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advanced morphological approach for systems value engineering

Rakov

2023

E3S Web Conf.

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The value engineering is widely used in the design of innovative engineering systems. The paper discusses the combination of morphological approaches for the development of value engineering methods. Increasing the efficiency of searching and analyzing new engineering solutions leads to the increase and refinement of information about the system under consideration. One of the defining criteria is adaptation at all stages of the life cycle. The purpose of the paper is to briefly analyze the application of the advanced morphological approach for detailed analysis. This paper describes the concept and results of using the methodology. As a result, the engineering system is analyzed and suggestions for further improvement of the approach are made. The advanced morphological analysis use in VE can be considered as a continuous process of increasing engineering and economic indicators of synthesized systems and technological processes, organizational structures.

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Section: Morphological Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advanced morphological approach for systems value engineering

Rakov

2023

E3S Web Conf.

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“…As shown in Figure 1, the technology evaluations are obtained from dedicated expert workshops, which implement a SEJE methodology specifically developed for the conceptual aircraft design with the AMA. The workshop methodology, its justifications, and applications are described in References [5,6]. The current work conducts the SA approach on the results of the first AMA workshop, which focused on the conceptual design of a SAR aircraft [6].…”

Section: Conducted Workhopmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The technology evaluation is conducted in the form of expert workshops that are specially designed and dedicated for the conceptual aircraft design with the AMA. For the purpose, a full-scale structured expert judgment elicitation (SEJE) method has been developed with an appropriate questionnaire, uncertainty modeling, workshop and problem structure, as well as data post-processing [5]. The methodology has been applied and iteratively developed on two use cases so far: the conceptual design of a search and rescue (SAR) aircraft [6] and the conceptual design of wing morphing architectures [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the purpose, a full-scale structured expert judgment elicitation (SEJE) method has been developed with an appropriate questionnaire, uncertainty modeling, workshop and problem structure, as well as data post-processing [5]. The methodology has been applied and iteratively developed on two use cases so far: the conceptual design of a search and rescue (SAR) aircraft [6] and the conceptual design of wing morphing architectures [5]. On a global scale, the desired output of the AMA is a reduced design subspace of rational configurations for further consideration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity Analysis and System Attribute Importance for Conceptual Aircraft Design with the Advanced Morphological Approach

2023

Self Cite

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The search for a rational design subspace of aircraft configurations can be addressed by using the advanced morphological approach (AMA). It allows the decomposition of design problems into functional and/or characteristic attributes and their technological implementation options. These are systemized in a morphological matrix (MM). Based on expert evaluations of each option, an exhaustive space is generated containing option combinations as possible solutions. Therefore, extensive MMs lead to immense solution spaces that are hard to analyze. However, removing attributes without justification might leave potential rational solutions out of scope. In this context, a sensitivity analysis technique is suggested based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests for use with the AMA. It can be applied to assess the sensitivity of solution scores against the attribute options and their importance. As a result, optimization of the MM and solution space can be achieved and improvement proposals can be drawn for future problem statements with the AMA. This is demonstrated on the data from a previously conducted AMA workshop on the conceptual design of a search and rescue aircraft.

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“…In the developed approach, the work is carried out according to the following algorithms (Fig. 3) [14,15]:…”

Section: Building Predictive Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of engineering solutions based on morphological approach

Rakov

2023

E3S Web of Conf.

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Forecasting of scientific solutions based on the morphological approach, as well as the analysis and synthesis of new ideas and engineering solutions depends on a large number of different factors. This means that the specific results and duration of analysis and synthesis largely contain uncertainty factors. Uncertainty arises from the diversity of internal and external relationships, the complexity and variety of causal factors and the complexity with other engineering and social systems. The increasing need to increase the speed of adoption and development of new innovative engineering solutions determines the importance of building predictive models and finding methods to increase the compared alternatives and methods for their evaluation. The aim of the paper is to analyze the application of the improved morphological approach for predicting the development of complex systems. As a result, the analysis of the complex system of the system and forecasting of its development is carried out. The use of the proposed approach can be considered as a process of increasing the stability of synthesized systems and processes.

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Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

Cited by 4 publications

References 45 publications

Advanced morphological approach for systems value engineering

Advanced morphological approach for systems value engineering

Sensitivity Analysis and System Attribute Importance for Conceptual Aircraft Design with the Advanced Morphological Approach

Prediction of engineering solutions based on morphological approach

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