Business cycles in an oil economy

Bergholt, Drago; Larsen, Vegard H.; Seneca, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.07.005

Cited by 44 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Therefore, investors must be cautious about these types of investment decisions. Lastly, the energy sector is linked to other areas of the economy through various supply chains, which can create spillovers between energy-sector investment and investment in other areas of the economy (Bergholt, Larsen, and Seneca 2017).…”

Section: The Energy Investment Landscape and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy investment variability within the macroeconomy

Rodziewicz¹

2018

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ver the past 10 years, the U.S. energy sector has exerted substantial influence on overall U.S. business fixed investment. From 2010 to 2014, a time when energy production in the United States was expanding, investment in the energy sector was a boon to aggregate investment. However, following the sharp oil price decline in 2014, the energy sector was a drag on aggregate investment. These recent examples demonstrate that the energy sector can contribute both positively and negatively to overall investment activity in the United States. Assessing the energy sector's contribution to investment requires an understanding of the size of the energy sector relative to the overall economy, the contributions from individual segments of the energy sector, and how investment dynamics within these segments have changed over time. Energy sector technology advanced rapidly over the last decade, a period when U.S. energy activity and investment also expanded. These technological changes contributed to increased investment variability within some energy segments. Together, changing energy activity and shifting variability within segments of the energy sector can meaningfully alter both the level and variability of aggregate investment. In this article, I estimate how individual segments of the energy sector contribute to U.S. aggregate investment activity as well as how those contributions have shifted over time. I find that levels of investment Energy Investment Variability within the Macroeconomy

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Section: The Energy Investment Landscape and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy investment variability within the macroeconomy

Rodziewicz¹

2018

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“…Dynamic relationship between variables stimulus-response analysis is shown using the variance decomposition analysis according to the results of a significant number of periodic changes in the business cycle, because of changes in oil prices. Research findings Hamilton (1983), Burbrigde and Harrison (1984), Mendoza and Vera (2010), Yilmazkuday (2011), Schwark (2014), Sodeyfi andKatiircioglu (2016), Fernández et al, (2017), Bergholt et al, (2019) has supported the work of.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

İş Çevrimlerinin Uluslararası Enerji Piyasalarına Duyarlılığının İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Akyol

Ağirkaya

2021

The Journal of International Scientific Researches

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ÖzBu araştırma petrol fiyatları ve iş çevrimleri arasındaki ilişkiyi dinamik bir şekilde incelemiştir. Araştırmada Türkiye'nin 2006Q1-2019Q3 arasındaki dönemi VAR analizi yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. VAR modeli sonuçları petrol fiyatlarında meydan gelen artışların iş çevrimlerini pozitif yönlü ve anlamlı etkilediğini göstermiştir. Buna göre, petrol fiyatları arttıkça Türkiye'de iş çevrimleri olarak ifade edilen konjonktürel dalgalanmaların şiddeti daha fazla yükselecektir. Bu bulgu Türkiye'deki makroekonomik yapının uluslararası enerji piyasaları ile olan güçlü ilişkisini göstermesi bakımından son derece önemlidir. Buna göre özellikle ani fiyat artışlarına neden olan petrol şoklarına karşı iş çevrimleri son derece duyarlı olacaktır. Araştırmada kullanılan diğer açıklayıcı değişkenlerden reel faiz oranlarının iş çevrimleri üzerindeki etkisi negatif yönlü ve anlamlı iken, küresel varlık piyasalarındaki değişimleri yansıtan S&P 500 endeksinin iş çevrimleri üzerindeki etkisi pozitif yönlü ve anlamlıdır. Geniş para arzı M2'deki değişimlerin ise iş çevrimleri üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi olmadığı görülmüştür. Değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişki etki-tepki analizleri kullanılarak gösterilirken, varyans ayrıştırma analizi sonuçlarına göre iş çevrimlerinde meydana gelen dönemsel değişimlerin önemli bir oranı petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerden kaynaklanmaktadır. Araştırmanın sonuçları, Türk ekonomisindeki reel iş çevrimleri üzerinde petrol fiyatlarının son derece güçlü etkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu bakımdan, petrol fiyatlarının aşırı yükseldiği dönemlerde çevrimsel dalgalanmaların şiddeti de artacaktır. Bu nedenle fiyatların çok hızlı bir şekilde değişmesine neden olabilecek petrol şoklarının ekonomiye olumsuz etkisi çok yüksek olabilir. Politika uygulayıcılarının, petrol şoklarının reel iş çevrimleri ve makroekonomi üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinin azaltılmasını sağlayacak şekilde enerji politikalarını revize etmeleri gerekir.

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“…The results of assessment of impulse functions show that positive oil price shocks lead to a decrease in the overall risk level in the Russian 11 Using data in the form of the indicator's annual growth rates makes it possible, on the one hand, to preserve information about trend changes in the variable (as compared to monthly growth indicators) and, on the other hand, to reduce the duration of empirical calculations in a large macroeconomic model (as compared to data in levels). An example of the use of this method of data processing is Bergholt et al (2019). Moreover, using the statistics on lending and its components in the form of annual growth rates is valuable for financial stability research, as they are a generally accepted indicative measure of risk (Alessi and Detken, 2018;Bank for International Settlements, 2019).…”

Section: Russiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies

Tiunova¹

2019

RJMF

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This research analyses the influence of commodity prices on financial cycle parameters in commodity-exporting countries-Australia, Brazil, Canada, Columbia, Russia, and Chile-over the past two decades. One of the key issues discussed herein is the degree to which the extensive implementation of macroprudential policies can reduce the dependence of a country on global commodity cycles. Methodologically, this research is based on the Bayesian Structure Vector Autoregressive Model, structurally identified by means of variable recursive ranking and the Cholesky decomposition of the error covariance matrix. Changes in commodity prices are shown to provoke a stronger response from such financial cycle parameters as the sovereign risk premium and currency exchange rate in resource-based emerging market economies (Brazil, Columbia, Chile, and Russia) than in advanced economies (Canada and Australia). In Brazil, Columbia, Chile, and Russia, increases in commodity prices result in acceleration of the overall lending and external debt growth rate, while in Russia and Brazil they also trigger growth in the share of FX loans. In Australia and Canada, lending parameters react negatively to positive commodity price shocks. In the developing countries that apply macroprudential policy extensively (Columbia and Chile), lending dynamics are less dependent on changes in the global terms of trade. To reduce the impact of the commodity cycle on the financial cycle, the economic policy authorities of emerging market countries should develop national financial markets and introduce macroprudental policy tools more extensively.

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Business cycles in an oil economy

Cited by 44 publications

References 51 publications

Energy investment variability within the macroeconomy

Energy investment variability within the macroeconomy

İş Çevrimlerinin Uluslararası Enerji Piyasalarına Duyarlılığının İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies

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