Business cycle, asymmetries and non-linearity: The Bolivian case

Abstract

In this paper, we deal with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. To achieve this, the approach is based on the combination of deviations on the level of trends (alternative filters) with the algorithm of Harding and Pagan (2002). At the same time, effective rates of economic growth by Markov's chains was considered in order to identify non-linear regimes of expansion and economic contraction. Finally, quantifications on the natural rate of growth for Bolivia are offered under a sustained expansion regime from 1950 to 2015. The results suggest that due to asymmetries and the manner in which the business cycle is measured, we observe longer duration of a business cycle when it was measured from busts rather than from booms.

Civilizational Cycles and Economic Development in the Context of Technological Transitions and Global Pandemics

“…Based on the above, the reduction in time and amplitude, i.e. shocks during bifurcation and cyclic fluctuations, will graphically look like a spiral that twists to the middle rather than a sine wave with a positive trend (Banegas Rivero et al, 2020). This image of evolutionary cyclical development (Figure 3) is more appropriate from the point of view of the etymology of the term "cycle", because it comes from the Greek κύκλος -circle.…”