Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes

Abstract

Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development.

Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments

“…However, linking scenarios across scales might not always be worthwhile (Kok et al 2007) and could have negative unintended consequences if local political contexts are not taken into account (Biggs et al 2007). Linking bottom-up and top-down scenario approaches is challenging (Carpenter et al 2009) although some approaches have been explored to resolve the methodological and scale-mismatch issues through loosely linking the scenarios (Biggs et al 2007, van Vuuren et al 2012 and harmonizing activities, as in the UNEP GEO6 outlooks process (Pereira et al 2019, UNEP 2019.…”

“…This is perhaps beyond the scope of current IPBES stakeholder engagement activities that function mainly through formal review processes with some perceived restrictions in terms of who and how stakeholders are involved (Granjou et al 2013). Researchers involved as experts in the IPBES process have identified this as an important challenge and have already begun work to explore how to bridge issues related to scale and diversity in relation to using scenarios as decision-support tools within future IPBES work (Lundquist et al 2017) and other global environmental assessments such as GEO6 (Pereira et al 2019, UNEP 2019.…”

The voices of youth in envisioning positive futures for nature and people

“…Second, transformative change is now even more urgently required for transitioning to a sustainable and safer future in an increasingly uncertain Anthropocene IPBES 2019a;Settele et al 2020). There is another lesson to learn -as humans, we are pressed to imagine what better futures are possible and how we can act to get there (Hulme 2020;Pereira et al, 2019c). A recent assessment by the World Labour Organisation worryingly reports that over a half of the young people (15-29 years old) in developed countries and approximately a third in emerging and developing countries are fearful or uncertain of their future working life (ILO 2017).Therefore, it is paramount to engage the youth and early career researchers in sustainability initiatives to help address intergenerational problems with fresher views on the future (Lim et al 2017;Jørgensen et al 2019).…”

Contextualizing Scenarios to Explore Social-Ecological Futures: A Three Step Participatory Case Study for the Humboldt Current Upwelling System

“…Scenario development has become a common tool in global environmental assessments (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [MA], 2005; Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services [IPBES], 2015) and has been used widely in environmental and climate change studies over the last decades (Priess et al, 2018) mainly driven by the use of scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, scenarios are globally used as a key method for identifying plausible futures with medium-and long-term horizons (Saito et al, 2019) and stimulating reflective processes that can contribute to decision-making (Pereira et al, 2019).…”

“…"), allowing to deal with high levels of uncertainty and ambiguity and encouraging creative thinking (cf. Pereira et al, 2019).…”